Sweet 16 Preview (Southeast Region)

March 24th (New Orleans, Louisiana)

# 3 BYU Cougars (32-4, 14-2 MWC) vs. #2 Florida Gators (28-7, 13-3 SEC) (-2.5)

Offensive Averages (National Rank/Conference Rank)

• BYU Cougars: 81.6 PPG (8th/1st) 14.6 APG (55th/4th) 38.4 RPG ((23rd/1st) 45.3 FG% (84th/6th)
• Florida Gators: 71.8 PPG (86th/4th) 13.9 APG (97th/2nd) 37.3 RPG (55th/5th) 46.5 FG% (37th/1st)

Defensive Averages (National Rank/Conference Rank)

• BYU Cougars: 67.5 PA (162nd/6th) 41.3 FGA% (70th/3rd)
• Florida Gators: 62.8 PA (47th/3rd) 42.3 FGA% (119th/10th)

• BYU Cougars: 15-16-1
• Florida Gators: 17-14

Key Match Up:

• BYU Guard Jimmer Fredette vs. Florida Guard Kenny Boynton

BYU Outlook:

What an impressive game by head coach Dave Rose’s team on Saturday against the 11th seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs. The Cougars played a near flawless offensive game, knocking down 14 out of 28 three point shots against the Bulldogs. The Cougars held the Bulldogs to 42.1 % from the field (over 5% below their season average of 47.9%). And of course, there was Jimmer. The Bulldogs just didn’t have an answer for the probable National Player of the Year. Fredette knocked down an amazing 7 out of 12 three points shots, to finish the game with 34 points. Fredette appears to be one of those rare players who can carry his team to a national championship. Fredette makes the Cougars offense nearly unstoppable when he is knocking down his shots, which by the way is usually always (FG% & 3FG% are both over 40% on the season). Fredette has shot under 40% from the field in only nine games this season. Although the Cougars are typically a strong rebounding team (a lot of that had to do with Brandon Davies), they were out rebounded by the Bulldogs by 9. They will need to keep an athletic Gators team from securing offensive rebounds, something they weren’t able to do against the Bulldogs (surrendered 12).

Florida Outlook:

Can a gator beat up a cougar? We'll find out on Thursday evening. Photo by: Mark Trammell

Head coach Billy Donovan and the Florida Gators return to the Sweet 16 for the 6th time since 2000. The Gators have been on an offensive tear the first two games of the tournament. They have increased their FG% (52.4%), FT% (76.7%), and assists (17.5 APG) over their season averages. Junior guard Irving Walker was the key component in the Gators 73-65 victory over UCLA on Saturday. The 5-foot-8 junior guard from Brooklyn, New York scored 10 of the Gators final 12 points (21 total) against the Bruins. The Gators are holding their opponents (UCSB & UCLA) to a combined 39% from the field in their two wins. Keep a close eye on the status of guard Kenny Boynton as this game draws nearer. Boynton played terrific defense against Fredette in last years first round match up (Won by BYU). If he is unable to go, Billy Donovan might be forced to play the undersized Irving (or possibly Scottie Wilbekin)
on Fredette.

Prediction:

Not much has changed since these two teams met up last season in the tournaments opening round. The Gators will start the same five guys from last years game. Seniors Alex Tyus, Chandler Parsons, Vernon Macklin, junior Irving Walker, and sophomore Kenny Boynton all have a couple more games of tournament experience under their belt. The same can be said for the Cougars returning players from last years match up of seniors Fredette, Jackson Emery, and juniors Noah Hartsock and Charles Abouo.

The Gators should have a huge advantage in the low post with Tyus and Macklin. They would be wise to turn this into a half court game, as I believe BYU excels more in a fast tempo game. Aside for Hartsock (who really isn’t a prototypical low post player), BYU doesn’t have anyone to match up against Tyus and Macklin. Tyus struggled in last years match up, only producing 6 points from the field (3-11 shooting). The Gators will want to limit their three point attempts on Thursday evening, as they really struggled in last years contest beyond the arc (Gators only made 10-32 attempts). For the season, the Gators are only averaging around 17.5 three point field goals attempts per game. They have other advantages that they should focus on rather than the three point shot on Thursday (superior low post play, dribble penetration on the perimeter).

The Cougars must try and dictate tempo on Thursday. They will have a tough time matching up with the physicality of the Gators front court. The Cougars were minus 12 on the boards against the Gators in last years match up. Since I don’t anticipate the rebounding aspect being any different, the Cougars will likely need to garner as many possessions as possible on Thursday. Look for Fredette to shoot the ball 25 plus times in hopes of producing a similar result as last year (37 points on 13-26 shooting).

The Gators have a better starting five, more athleticism, length, and quickness on the perimeter. What they don’t have is Jimmer Fredette. Fredette will be the difference in this game (for better or worse). He is just too talented of a player to be contained by anyone on the Gators. Yes, Boynton did an excellent job covering him last year. However, I don’t think he will be anywhere near 100% when the game tips off on Thursday evening. His ankle injury isn’t going to allow him to chase Fredette around on the perimeter. Pretty simple here, the Gators would like to have this game in the 60s. The Cougars would prefer to be in the high 70s-low 80s. I like the Cougars to dictate tempo (again), and Fredette and company to advance one step closer to a Final Four berth.

Cougars win, take the Cougars plus 2.5

# 8 Butler Bulldogs (25-9, 13-5 Horizon) vs. # 4 Wisconsin Badgers (25-8, 13-5 Big 10) (-4.0)

Offensive Averages (National Rank/Conference Rank)

• Butler Bulldogs: 72.4 PPG (76th/3rd) 12.5 APG (188th/4th) 34.4 RPG (195th/5th) 44.5 FG% (125th/5th)
• Wisconsin Badgers: 68.4 PPG (180th/8th) 13.1 APG (154th/9th) 32.0 RPG (300th/9th) 44.6 FG% (118th/8th)

Defensive Averages (National Rank/Conference Rank)

• Butler Bulldogs: 64.6 PA (76th/3rd) 43.0 FGA% (163rd/5th)
• Wisconsin Badgers: 58.5 PA (4th/1st) 42.8 FGA% (151st/8th)

ATS (Against the Spread)

• Butler Bulldogs: 17-15
• Wisconsin Badgers: 16-12-1

Key Match Up(s):

• Butler Forward Matt Howard vs. Wisconsin Forward Jon Leuer
• Butler Guard Shelvin Mack vs. Wisconsin Guard Jordan Taylor

Butler Outlook:

Do Matt Howard and the Bulldogs have one last miracle in them? Photo by: Brad J. Ward

It looks like the glass slipper fits again this season for head coach Brad Stevens and the Bulldogs. Butler knocked off #1 seed Pitt on Saturday despite being out shot by more than 10% from the field (56% Pitt-46% Butler). Yet, the Bulldogs outscored the Panthers by plus 18 from beyond the arc to make up the difference on the two point field goal disparity (20-12 in favor of Pitt). Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard combined to account for 64% (Mack-31 & Howard 16) of the Bulldogs offense against the Panthers. Both Mack and Howard have been extremely consistent for the Bulldogs all season long. Mack has double figures or more in 30 games this season, Howard in 28 games. Guards Ronald Nored and Shawn Vanzant give the Bulldogs a more than capable back court against the Badgers. Coach Stephens should be able to throw each player at Wisconsin’s Jordan Taylor in hopes of saving some energy for Shelvin Mack.

Wisconsin Outlook:

If you take away Jacob Pullen’s 13-22 shooting against the Badgers on Saturday (amazing performance by the way), Wisconsin has held their first two opponents (Belmont & Kansas State) to 35.7% from the field. Signature defensive efforts like that have been the staple of Bo Ryan’s teams since he arrived in Madison back in 2001. The Badgers usually force you to play at their tempo. They have held 20 opponents to 60 points or less this season (17-3). They led the Big 10 conference in points allowed per game, only surrendering 62.4 per contest. Their 1-2 punch of point guard Jordan Taylor and forward Jon Leuer combined to average 36.7 PPG, 11.2 RPG, and 6.4 APG. Senior forward Keaton Nankivil and sophomore forward Mike Brusewitz give head coach Bo Ryan two versatile big men who can both knock down the 3 point shot. The Badgers size should pose problems for Butler’s front court on Thursday evening.

Prediction:

Can Jon Leuer land the Bulldogs Matt Howard in early foul trouble?

This has the potential to be the best match up out of all eight games on Thursday and Friday. Both of these teams have similar strengths in that they score, rebound, defend, and distribute the ball efficiently. Butler’s Matt Howard has a knack for getting into early foul trouble.  Bo Ryan will likely feed Jon Leuer in the post early on in hopes of getting Howard off the floor. The Bulldogs will have problems matching up against the Badgers front court if Howard isn’t in the line up.

Aside from Jordan Taylor, the Bulldogs definitely have the advantage on the perimeter. Guards Mack, Nored, and Vanzant should be able to get past the Badgers back court of Gasser and Jarmusz with relative ease. If the Badgers aren’t able to help out on dribble penetration against the Bulldogs backcourt, they will likely find themselves picking up some cheap fouls on the perimeter (not to mention giving up some wide open looks on kick-outs). The Shelvin Mack versus Jordan Taylor match up should be fun to watch. Both are two of the premier point guards in the nation.

The Badgers just wear you down with their tedious offensive sets, and then compound it with a physical style of defense. Bo Ryan is a master of dictating tempo. I expect Leuer to win the low post battle with Howard, and possibly land him into early foul trouble. The Bulldogs have immense experience left over from their team that nearly knocked Duke off in the national championship game last year. The Bulldogs close victories against Old Dominion and Pitt so far are proof of that. However, this years Badgers team has a different feel to it from previous years. I like the fact that Taylor can create his own shot when the offense becomes stagnant. I like the Badgers to win in a highly entertaining contest.

Badgers win, take the Badgers minus 4.0

Check back tomorrow for our Southwest Region Sweet 16 Preview