Sweet 16 Preview (Southwest Region)

Can the Spiders continue their improbable run?

 

March 25th (San Antonio, Texas)

# 12 Richmond Spiders (29-7, 13-3 A-10) vs. # 1 Kansas Jayhawks (34-2, 14-2 Big 12) (-10.5)

Offensive Averages (National Rank/Conference Rank)

•  Richmond Spiders: 70.0 PPG (133rd/5th) 15.0 APG (39th/2nd) 33.0 RPG (266th/12th) 46.3 FG% (43rd/1st)
• Kansas Jayhawks: 81.8 PPG (6th/1st) 17.9 APG (1st/1st) 38.t RPG (19th/2nd) 51.4 FG% (1st/1st)

Defensive Averages (National Rank/ Conference Rank)

•  Richmond Spiders: 60.8 PA (18th/4th) 40.3 FGA% (33rd/3rd)
• Kansas Jayhawks: 64.7 PA (79th/6th) 39.6 FGA% (15th/2nd)

ATS (Against the Spread)

•  Richmond Spiders: 21-11-1
• Kansas Jayhawks: 18-13-1

Key Match Up:

•  Richmond Forward Justin Harper vs. Kansas Forward Marcus Morris

Richmond Outlook:

Senior point guard Kevin Anderson was sensational against Vanderbilt last Thursday. Anderson scored timely buckets late in regulation (finished with 25 points) to help the Spiders advance past their opening round game for the first time since 1998. Although the Spiders surrendered over 50% from the floor to the Commodores, they made up for it with their three point shooting and ball control. Chris Mooney’s team knocked down 12 out of 24 three points shots(season high), and only managed to turn the ball over 3 times (season low). Against Morehead State, the Spiders once again limited their turnovers (6). Justin Harper helped the Spiders take control of the game by scoring eight of the Spiders 11 points during a pivotal 11-4 run. Harper would finish the game with 19 points (9-18 shooting) and 6 rebounds. By defeating Vanderbilt last Thursday, the Spiders became the only program to win games as a number 12, 13, 14, and 15 seed.

Kansas Outlook:

 The Kansas Jayhawks return to the Sweet 16 for the fifth time under the tutelage of head coach Bill Self (2003-present). The Jayhawks have steamrolled through their first two opponents (Boston University & Illinois) winning their match ups by a combined 16.5 points per game. The Jayhawks are out shooting their opponents by nearly 15%  from the floor (51.4%-Kansas vs. 36.8%-Boston & Illinois combined). They are currently plus 20 on the boards, and plus 10 in the assists department over the first two games. The Morris brothers (Markieff & Marcus) have accounted for 49% of their teams offense (72 points total) through the first two games. The Jayhawks are looking to advance to the Elite Eight for the first time since their national championship season of 2007-08.

Prediction:

Kansas will have to solve the Spiders match up zone defense. Kansas will want to force tempo against Richmond. They do not want to find themselves in a half court game with the Spiders. The Spiders do an excellent job of switching their defensive looks (Zone/Man) and are excellent at recovering on the perimeter. This will be the most important aspect for both teams. If Kansas is forced to play against the Spiders match up zone for a prolonged period, it could frustrate them.

The Spiders will need to value possessions(something they have been able to do thus far) and knock down their shots. Since they will likely have a tough time matching up with the Jayhawks frontcourt, the Spiders match up zone will need to be effective for 40 minutes. Justin Harper and Kevin Anderson will both need to score over their season averages. Forwards Dan Geriot and Darrius Garrett will likely be called up to cover the Morris brothers.

This is your classic David vs. Goliath match up. The Jayhawks have shown a propensity for losing similar type games under head coach Bill Self (Bucknell-2005, Bradley-2006, Northern Iowa-2010). Keep a close on eye the first 8-10 minutes of this game. If the Jayhawks come out tight, the Spiders will have a chance to build a quick lead on them. Kevin Anderson and Justin Harper give the Spiders a complimentary scoring duo, and they have proved thus far that they can score when called upon. Upset alert! We like the Spiders to continue their magical run with a historical victory of the top seeded Kansas Jayhawks.

Spiders win, take the Spiders plus 10.5

#11 Virginia Commonwealth Rams (26-11, 12-6 CAA) vs. #10 Florida State Seminoles (23-10, 11-5 ACC) (-4.0)

Offensive Averages (National Rank/Conference Rank)

• VCU Rams: 71.9 PPG (83rd/2nd) 14.4 APG (65th/1st) 32.3 RPG (292nd/8th) 43.6 FG% (168th/8th)
• FSU Seminoles: 69.0 PPG (160th/8th) 12.6 APG (180th/6th) 38.9 RPG (15th/3rd) 43.7 FG% (161st/9th)

Defensive Averages (National Rank/ Conference Rank)

•  VCU Rams: 66.8 PA (135th/5th) 44.9 FGA% (265th/10th)
• FSU Seminoles: 61.7 PA (26th/4th) 36.0 FGA% (1st/1st)

ATS (Against the Spread)

•  VCU Rams: 17-19
• FSU Seminoles: 15-10-2

Key Match Up:

•  VCU Guard Joey Rodriguez vs. FSU Guard Derwin Kitchen

VCU Outlook:

In my opinion, the Rams are the most impressive team in the tournament through the first week of competition. In wins over USC, Georgetown, and Purdue the Ram have forced 20 more turnovers than they have committed. The Rams shot an impressive 65.5% in the second half (56.9% for the game) against Purdue on Sunday to put the game away early. The Rams looked like the quicker team on Sunday against the Boilermakers. The Rams were able to break the Boilermakers press with ease, and point guard Joey Rodriguez found countless Rams players for open looks (11 assists). The Rams are beating their opponents by a combined 16.3 points per game thus far. The Rams return to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2007.

FSU Outlook:

How effective will Chris Singleton be on Friday evening for the Seminoles?

The premier defensive team in college basketball during the regular season, has been even better in the tournament. The Seminoles have held their opponents (Texas A&M & Notre Dame) to an amazing 31% from the field. That is 5% below their season average (36% ranks 1st nationally). Keep an eye on star forward Chris Singleton (13.0 PPG 6.7 RPG). He returned from a foot injury to playing in the opening round game versus Texas A&M. Coach Leonard Hamilton has limited his minutes to around 10-15 during their first two contests. However, with the extra couple days to heal, he could be a factor come Friday evening.

Prediction:

The Seminoles are an exceptional defensive team. However, the Rams also pride themselves on defense as well. As mentioned above, Chris Singleton could be the key to this match up. I am not quite sure he can remain effective for an extended period of time for Coach Hamilton. The Rams pressing defense might not allow Singleton to get into a comfort zone on Friday evening. I believe the Rams consistency on offense (4 player average double figures- Rozzell, Skee, Burgess, and Rodriguez) will be the biggest difference in this game. The Seminoles just won’t have enough fire power to overcome the Rams versatility on offense. I like the Rams to advance in this one.

Ram win, take the Rams plus 4.0