2012 NCAA Tournament: East Region Preview

#1 Syracuse Orange (31-2, 17-1 Big East) vs. #16 UNC-Asheville Bulldogs (24-9, 16-2 Big South) (+17)

How They Punched Their Ticket:

• Syracuse: 1^st Place Big East- At Large Bid
• UNC Ashville: Won the Big South Tournament: Automatic Bid

ATS (Against the Spread)

• Syracuse- 15-17
• UNC Asheville: 7-1

Orange Outlook: Jim Boeheim continues to put himself on the shortlist of the greatest college basketball coaches of all time.  For the fifth time during his illustrious 36 year stint at Syracuse, Boeheim captured  the “all magical” 30 win season.  It was his 34^th season with 20 wins or more.  Syracuse has few weaknesses on either side of the court.  They outshot their opponents by over 8% on the season (6.9% in conference play).  They limited their opponents to just 38.3% from the field on the season (8^th nationally).  Senior leaders Scoop Jardine (PG) and Kris Joseph (SF) lead an Orange attack that returned four starters from last season’s 27 win team.  C.J. Fair and Fab Melo (ruled ineligible for tournament) gained valuable experience last and increased their minutes per game considerably.  One of the biggest strengths was the improvement of sophomore guard Dion Waiters.  Waiters improved his points per game (+6), minutes per game (+7.6), field goal percentage (+7.0%), and three point field goal percentage (+3.6%).  Perhaps Waiters most noticeable improvement was his attitude and work ethic (both of which were said to be lacking during his freshman season).  The Orange ranked near the top of the Big East in field goal percentage (45.5%-2^nd), points per possession (1.2-1^st), assists per game (15.3-3^rd), and blocks per game (7.4-1^st).

Bulldogs Outlook: The Bulldogs return to the NCAA tournament for the third time in their programs history.  After finishing in 3^rd place (11-7 in conference) during the Big South regular season last season (won conference tourney to earn automatic bid), the Bulldogs were the unquestioned class of the conference in 2011-12.   In fact, the Bulldogs 24 regular season wins, as well as 16 conference wins, were the highest in the programs history.  The Bulldogs are led by the lethal backcourt duo of Matt Dickey and J.P. Primm.  Both players are polished scorers who have the ability to beat in you a variety of ways.  Dickey and Primm accounted for over 60% of the Bulldogs three point field goals during the regular season (132 combined between them).  Junior college transfer Jeremy Atkinson really helped the Bulldogs during his first season, averaging 11.6 points per game and 6.6 rebounds per game (54.1 FG%).  The Bulldogs led the Big South conference in points per game (81.2), field goal percentage (48.8%), and assist/turnover ratio (1.2).

Prediction: Dickey and Primm are capable scorers who could help keep this one close.  Unfortunately, the Bulldogs won’t be able to match up with the Syracuse front line of Joseph and Fair.  Expect the Orange to be shooting free throws early and often in this one.  Too much fire power here for the Bulldogs to overcome.

Orange Win, take the Orange minus 17

#8 Kansas State Wildcats (21-10, 10-8 Big 12) vs. #9 Southern Miss (25-8, 11-5 C-USA) (+5.5)

How They Punched Their Ticket:

• Kansas State- 5^th Place Big 12- At Large Bid
• Southern Miss- 2^nd Place C-USA- At Large Bid

ATS (Against the Spread):

• Kansas State- 13-14
• Southern Miss- 12-16-1

Wildcats Outlook: Head coach Frank Martin has averaged 23.5 wins during his four years running the Wildcats program.  Martin implements an eight man rotation, with those players all logging 15 minutes or more per game.  The Wildcats led the conference in generating turnovers, forcing their opponents to commit 16 per game.  They ranked in the top three in points allowed (64.1) and opponents field goal percentage (42.8%).  Junior forward Rodney McGruder is the Wildcats most capable scorer (15.4 PPG 5.4 RPG). McGruder scored in double figures in 18 of the 19 Wildcats conference games (including Big 12 Tournament). McGruder is capable of carrying the Wildcats offensively, and more times than not he is asked to do just that.  Freshman point guard Angel Rodriguez tends to play out of his elements at times, and as a result struggles with efficiency (36.5% shooter from the field).  The front court of Jordan Henriquez-Roberts and Jamar Samuels combine to account for over 20% of the Wildcats scoring and rebounding.  Sophomore guard Will Spradling averaged 9.4 points per game, but struggled from the field much of the season (36.4%).

Golden Eagles Outlook: Head coach Larry Eustachy and the Golden Eagles return to the NCAA tournament for the first time in over 20 years (1991-Last appearance).  The Golden Eagles beat NCAA tournament teams Colorado State, South Florida, and Memphis during the regular season (also lost to Murray State at home).  Even though the Golden Eagles place near the top of the league in points per game (69.6-2^nd) and points per possession (1.06-2^nd), they struggled shooting the ball on the season.  Their 41.1% team shooting was the worst in Conference USA.  The Golden Eagles are able to offset that with their ability to get to the free throw line on a frequent basis.  The Golden Eagles led the conference in free throw attempts (384), makes (279), and percentage (72.7%).  The Golden Eagles are a balanced scoring attack with six players averaging at least nine points per game on the season (LaShay Page-11.5, Angelo Johnson-9.5, Neil Watson-12.2, Maurice Bolden-9.9, Jonathan Mills-9.7, Darnell Dodson-11.1).

Prediction: The Wildcats sometimes go through spurts why they look lost offensively.  In years past, they were so talented on defense that they could compensate for poor offensive play.  However, aside from McGruder, the Wildcats really don’t have someone who can score consistently for them in the tournament.  Although they shoot a low percentage, the Golden Eagles have a well balanced scoring attack that finds a way to put points on the board.  We like the Golden Eagles in a mild upset.

Golden Eagles win, take the Golden Eagles plus 5.5

#5 Vanderbilt Commodores (24-10, 10-6 SEC) vs. #12 Harvard Crimson (26-4, 12-2 Ivy) (+6)

How They Punched Their Ticket:

• Vandy: Won the SEC Tournament: Automatic Bid
• Harvard: 1^st Place Ivy League: Automatic

ATS (Against the Spread)

• Vandy: 17-13
• Harvard: 11-13

Commodores Outlook: Perhaps the Commodores victory in the SEC Title game versus Kentucky will help alleviate some of the first round jitters.  The Commodores have struggled to get out of the first round of the tournament 3 out of the last 4 seasons (losses to Siena-2007, Murray State-2009, Richomnd-2011). The Commodores boast one of the most experienced starting lineups in the nation.   Four seniors (PG-Brad Tinsely, SF-Jeffrey Taylor, PF-Lance Goulbourne, C-Festus Ezeli) and one junior (SG-John Jenkins) comprise the bulk of the Commodores team production.  John Jenkins and Jeffrey Taylor are two of the most dynamic scorers in the SEC.  Both are high percentage shooters from the floor (combine to shoot 48%), as well as beyond the arc (44% combined).  Jenkins and Taylor can both create their own shot off of the dribble, as well as move effectively without the ball.  The Commodores finished second in the SEC in points per game (70.8), scoring margin (7), field goal percentage (45.7%) and points per possession (1.12).  They led the conference in free throws made (250), three point field goal percentage (42.3%), and assists per game (13.1).

Crimson Outlook: The wait is over!  Head coach Tommy Amaker and the Crimson captured their first ever Ivy League title (outright).  They will be making their first NCAA tournament appearance since 1946.  Amaker has led the Crimson to three straight 20 win seasons.  The Crimson started the season off on a high note, winning the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament, in which they knocked off fellow tournament team Florida State.  The Crimson were productive on both sides of the court this season.  Their 46.9% shooting was 2^nd best in the Ivy League, whereas they held their opponents to a paltry 39.7% shooting (1^st in the Ivy League).  The Crimson front line of Kyle Casey (Junior) and Keith Wright (Senior) produced all season long.  The combo combined to connect on over 55% of their shots on the season (672 total points scored).  Wright became just the second ever Crimson player to take home Ivy League Player of the Year last season.  Amaker and the Crimson will no doubt be a tough out for someone the first week of the tournament.

Prediction: Harvard will need to control tempo and limit turnovers in this one.  The Commodores are far too efficient offensively, especially with Taylor and Jenkins, to be shut down for a long period of time.  Keep an eye on the Goulbourne and Ezeli vs. Casey and Wright match up.  If Harvard can get Goulbourne and Ezeli in early foul trouble, the Commodores have limited depth in the front court.  Look for Harvard to control tempo, keep the game close late, and pull off the upset.

Crimson Win, take the Crimson plus 6

#4 Wisconsin Badgers (24-9, 12-6 Big 10) vs. #13 Montana Grizzlies (25-6, 15-1 Big Sky) (+9.5)

How They Punched Their Ticket:

• Wisconsin: 4^th Place Big Ten- At Large Bid
• Montana- Won Big Sky Tournament- Automatic Bid

ATS (Against the Spread):

• Wisconsin: 13-14
• Montana: 17-19-1

Badgers Outlook: During his coaching tenure at Wisconsin, head coach Bo Ryan has won over 70% of his games.  2011-12 was no different, as the Badgers won at least 20 games or more for the 10^th time in their last 11 seasons.  The Badgers always excel in team defense and valuing possessions on the offensive side of the court.  Wisconsin led the conference in point per game allowed (57.1) and finished second with the fewest turnovers (165-9.2 Turnovers per game).  Senior guard Jordan Taylor struggled at times this season with his shot (FG%, 3FG%, and FT% all down from last year), however he is still the most important player on the Badgers offense.  Taylor shot under 40% from the floor in eight of the Badgers game this season (5-3).  Junior forward/center Jared Berggren stepped in nicely to fill the shoes of All Big-Ten performer Jon Leuer (drafted by the Milwaukee Bucks).  For all intents and purposes, Berggren (10.4 PPG 4.9 RPG) serves as the Badgers only legitimate low post threat.  Junior wingman Ryan Evans led the Badgers in rebounding on the season (6.9 RPG).  Evan is a versatile player who can score from a variety of ways on the court.  Sophomore Josh Gasser is a high percentage sharp shooter (46.9%)  who benefits from the Badgers structured offense.  The Badgers will be making their 14^th straight appearance in the Big Dance.

Grizzlies Outlook: The Grizzlies won 20 games or more for the third consecutive season, and their 15 conference wins were the most in 20 years (16 wins in 1991-92).  The Grizzlies enter the tourney as one of the hottest teams in the country.  They have not suffered a defeat since back on January 14^th (Weber State) and their win versus Weber State in the Big Sky title game upped their winning streak to 14 games.  The Grizzlies are led by junior point guard Will Cherry (16.0 PPG) and sophomore wingman Kareem Jamar (13.8 PPG).  Cherry worked extensively during the off season to improve his perimeter shooting.  His hard work paid off, as Cherry improved his 3FG% by nearly 15% (37.3%-2011-12 vs 22.5%-2010-11) and knocked down twice as many three point shots this season (50 total compared to 23 last season).    Seven foot senior Derek Selvig presents a unique matchup problem for opposing teams.  Selvig has the ability to score in the post, as well as out on the perimeter.  It’s not every day you see a seven foot as efficient beyond the arc as Selvig.  He connects on an impressive 43.5% of his three point shots (37 made on the year).  The Grizzlies limited their opponents to a stingy 58.4 points per game, as well as 37.7% shooting (both tops in the Big Sky).

Prediction: The Badgers style of play translates into postseason play.  The Badgers value possessions, play tough defense, and rarely beat themselves.  Even if the Grizzlies Will Cherry can somehow neutralize the Badgers Jordan Taylor, the Grizzlies are going to need career games from Jamar and Selvig to pull the upset.  Look for the Badgers to advance past the first round for sixth consecutive season.

Badgers win, take the Badgers minus 9.5

#6 Cincinnati Bearcats (24-10, 12-6 Big East) vs. #11 Texas Longhorns (20-13, 9-9 Big 12) (+2)

How They Punched Their Ticket:

• Cincinnati: T-4^th Place Big East- At Large Bid
• Texas: 6^th Place Big 12- At Large Bid

ATS (Against the Spread):

• Cincinnati: 15-13
• Texas: 10-17

Bearcats Outlook: You better be prepared to grind one out when you face Mick Cronin’s Bearcats.  They may not be the most talented team in the nation, but few teams can match their tenacity and effort (especially on the defensive end).  The Bearcats are led by their three returning starters from last season’s 26 win team (Yancy Gates, Cashmere Wright, Dion Dixon).  Gates is a physical presence down on the block that very few teams can match up with.  He played some of his best basketball in the Big East tournament in which he averaged 16.5 points and 7.5 rebounds per game.  Similar to Gates, the back court duo of Cashmere Wright and Dion Dixon bring valuable experience to the table.  The two have combined to appear in 237 games for the Bearcats during their illustrious careers.  Dixon and Wright account for 35.3% (795) of the Bearcats scoring, and 51.7% (224) of its assists.  Sophomore Sean Kilpatrick is one of the premier three point shooters in the country.  His 83 three pointers made led the Big East conference.  The Bearcats limited their conference opponents to 42.5% shooting from the field  on the season.

Longhorns Outlook: Apparently the tournament committee believed the Longhorns win versus Iowa State in the Big 12 tournament was enough to strengthen their body of work (I don’t necessarily agree).  Nonetheless, the Longhorns head to the Big Dance for the 14^th straight year under head coach Rick Barnes.  After losing five starters from last season’s 28 win team, junior guard J’Covan Brown stepped up to fill the role of team leader.  His production was outstanding during the regular season, averaging 35.4 minutes per game, 20.1 points per game, and shooting an efficient percentage from the field (41.7%).  Primarily a spark off of the bench during his freshman and sophomore seasons, Brown transitioned rather seamlessly into a starter.  He is the unquestioned focal point of what the Longhorns look to do on offense.  Three freshman guards (Myck Kabango, Julien Lewis, Sheldon McClellan) play roles within Rick Barnes system. The freshman account for over 38% of the Longhorns scoring on the season.  The Longhorns are one of the few teams in the field that actually shot a lower percentage from the field (42%) than their opponents during conference play (44.4%).

Prediction: Brown will likely need to score 25-30 points for the Longhorns to have any shot in this one.  Cincinnati is an experienced and tough team.  The Longhorns will have their hands full with Gates on the block and Wright and Dixon on the perimeter.   The Longhorns offense can become stagnant if Brown isn’t on his game.  If that is the case, the game likely falls on the shoulders of the three freshman.  Look for the Bearcats to play one of their signature defensive games and advance to the second round.

Bearcats win, take the Bearcats minus 2

# 3 Florida State Seminoles (24-9, 12-4 ACC) vs. #14 St. Bonaventure (20-11, 10-6 A-10) (+6.5)

How They Punched Their Ticket:

• Florida State: Won the ACC Tournament: Automatic Bid
• St. Bonaventure: 2^nd Place A-10- At Large Bid

ATS (Against the Spread):

• Florida State: 17-13
• St. Bonaventure: 19-11

Seminoles Outlook: Head coach Leonard Hamilton and the Seminoles have certainly developed an identity the last couple seasons.  Very few teams nationally, not just in the ACC, can match the Seminoles defensive intensity.  The Seminoles held their opponents to a meager 38.1% from the field this season, good for 5^th in the nation.  The Seminoles are able to stay fresh on the court due in main part to Hamilton’s constant rotations (he refers to it as “tag-team” system).  For the second consecutive season, Hamilton gave at least 10 players double digit minutes during the season.  Even though the Seminoles lost standout starters Chris Singleton and Derwin Kitchen, they actually improved on the offensive side of the ball in 2011-12.  The Seminoles 45.4% shooting led the ACC, as did their 37.7% from beyond the arc.  Junior guard Michael Snaer delivered as the teams primary scoring weapon this season.  Snaer scored in double figures in 12 of the Seminoles 16 conference games.  On their way to winning the ACC tournament, the Seminoles shut down two of the premier offenses in the nation.  The Seminoles held Duke and North Carolina to a combined 38.3% shooting from the field.  That was a full 7% below their season total.

Bonnies Outlook: After averaging just 13 wins his first four years, head coach Mark Schmidt finally had his breakthrough season.  The Bonnies won 20 games, finished in 3^rd place during the regular season, and won the Atlantic 10 Tournament.  The victory in the A-10 tournament assured the Bonnies of their first berth in the NCAA tournament since 2000.  The Bonnies outshot their opponents during the A-10 Tournament (St. Josephs, UMass, Xavier) by nearly 10% (48%-Bonnies vs. 39.7%-3 combined opponents).  Senior forward Andrew Nicholson is the catalyst for the Bonnies on both ends of the court.  Nicholson led the Bonnies with 18.4 points per game, 57.6% shooting from the floor, and 8.5 rebounds per game.  Nicholson’s ability to knock down the mid range jump shot, as well as score on the block, make him a tough matchup for opposing big men.  Junior forward Demitrius Conger has improved his points per game (12.0), field goal percentage (50.6%), and rebounds per game (6.1) every season since his freshman campaign.  The Bonnies have six other players who average at least 6 points per game (Chris Johnson-6.6, Eric Mosely-6.7, Charlon Kloof-6.5, Da’Quan Cook-7.6, Matthew Wright-7.0).  The Bonnies were near the top of the conference in both field goal percentage (45.9%-2^nd) and opponents field goal (42.3%-5^th).

Prediction: The Seminoles are such a dynamic defensive unit, points are going to be hard to come by for the Bonnies.  As mentioned above, the Seminoles are coming off an impressive stretch where they shut down two of the premier offenses in the nation.  The Seminoles will likely be able to throw different looks at Nicholson in hopes of neutralizing him.  The magic number for the Bonnies is 40%.  If they can shoot above that number, they will have a chance for the upset.  If not, they will be one and done.

Seminoles win, take the Seminoles minus 6.5

#7 Gonzaga Bulldogs (25-6, 13-3 West Coast) vs. #10 West Virginia Mountaineers (19-13, 9-9 Big East) (EVEN)

How They Punched Their Ticket:

• Gonzaga: 2^nd Place WCC- At Large Bid
• West Virginia- 8^th Place Big East- At Large Bid

ATS (Against the Spread)

• Gonzaga: 13-16
• West Virginia: 15-14

Zags Outlook: The Bulldogs have become a regular fixture in the NCAA tournament.  This season will mark their 14^th straight appearance in the Big Dance.  Head coach Mark Few gets great production out of his front court.  Senior Robert Sacre (11.7 PPG 6.3 RPG) gives the Bulldogs a strong defensive presence, as well as physical rebounder down low.  Sacre is a high energy player who can block shots (45 on the season), run the floor, and knock down the mid range jump shot.  Junior forward Elias Harris (13.1 PPG 8.7 RPG) might be the Bulldogs best offensive weapon.  Harris can create his own shot on the post or the perimeter.  Since his freshman campaign, Harris has shot over 50% from the field each of his three seasons.  Sophomore center Sam Dower (8.4 PPG 3.7 RPG) gives the Bulldogs added depth in the front court.  A couple of talented freshman guards make up the Bulldogs backcourt.  Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell account for over 30% of the Zags scoring (727-32%), as well as 61% of their shots made beyond the arc (119).  The Zags led the West Coast conference in points allowed (61.9), opponent’s field goal percentage (40.1%), and free throws made (292).  They also had the second highest field goal percentage from the floor (48.2%).

Mountaineers Outlook: Head coach Bobby Huggins has won 68% of his games during his five year tenure at his alma mater.  The Mountaineers return to the tournament for the 5^th straight year under the leadership of Huggins.  Under Huggins, the Mountaineers have experienced great success within the tournament.  They have won a total of seven games over the last 4 seasons.  The Mountaineers are led by one of the most dynamic players in the country in senior forward Kevin Jones.  Jones worked hard in the off season to improve his shooting and build his strength and conditioning.  The off season regimen paid off for Jones, as he averaged career highs in minutes played (38.2), points per game (20.1), free throw percentage (78.1%), and rebounds per game (11.1 RPG).  Jones is extremely athletic and possesses great length.  Most teams must commit to a double team to try and slow him down.  Senior point guard Darryl Bryant is strong with ball penetration in the lane.  He can beat his man of the dribble with a quick first step and finish with either hand.  He can sometimes be turnover prone (78 on the season), but has had a great regular season (17.1 PPG).  The Mountaineers were the second leading rebounding team in the Big East this season (37.4 RPG).

Prediction: The Kevin Jones versus Elias Harris match up will be fun to watch.  West Virginia has struggled with consistency all season long, but Huggins is a proven big game coach.  Not to say that Mark Few isn’t, however the Mountaineers appear to be battle tested after grinding out the brutal Big East season.  Look for the Zags to shoot well below their season average of around 50% from the field, and Kevin Jones to win the battle versus Harris.

Mountaineers win, take the Mountaineers straight up

#2 Ohio St. Buckeyes (27-7, 13-5 Big 10) vs. #15 Loyola (MD) Greyhounds (24-8, 13-5 MAAC) (+17.5)

How They Punched Their Ticket:

• Ohio State: T-1^st Place Big Ten: At Large Bid
• Loyola (MD): Won MAAC Tournament: Automatic Bid

ATS (Against the Spread):

• Ohio State: 17-11
• Loyola (MD): 16-82

Buckeyes Outlook: Thad Matta has continued to stock pile upper echelon talent in Columbus during his eight years at the school.  So when the Buckeyes lost key seniors such as David Lighty and Jon Diebler from last season’s 34 win team, the Buckeyes didn’t panic.  Instead, new players were expected to fill the void left by those key seniors.  The Buckeyes of course had talented returning starters Aaron Craft, William Buford, and Jared Sullinger returning.  However, the player that stepped and filled the void left by Diebler and Lighty was certainly sophomore DeShaun Thomas.  Thomas doubled his minutes per game (30.2-2011 vs. 14.0-2010), as well as his scoring average (15.0-2011 vs. 7.5-2010) this season.  He also improved FG% (+4.7) and his 3FG% (+2.1).  The focal point of the Buckeyes offense still remains Sullinger in the post.  However, Thomas (along with Buford) could be the second most important player on the Buckeyes roster.  The Buckeyes led the Big Ten conference in scoring margin, defeating their opponents by an average of 10.8 points per game.  The Buckeyes field goal percentage (47.2%-2^nd) and their opponent’s field goal percentage (41.1%-3rd) both ranked near the top of the Big Ten.  The Buckeyes also led the conference in rebounds per game (36.8), outrebounding their opponent’s by more than 7 a game.

Greyhounds Outlook: : After a combining for an average of 15 wins the last five seasons, head coach Jimmy Patsos and the Greyhounds finally saw their breakout season in 2011-12 (24 wins).  Hard to believe that the Greyhounds program is only eight years removed from their 1-27 season (2003-04).  With the luxury of returning four starters from last year’s team, the Greyhounds jumped out of the gates early on, winning 8 of their first 9 games.  Erik Etherly (6-7-Junior) and Shane Walker (6-10-Senior) combine to give the Greyhounds a formidable front court.  Walker is an inside-outside threat.  He has polished low post moves, and has the ability to knock down the long range shot (24 three point shots on the season).  Etherly improved his minutes per game, points per game (+2.8), and field goal percentage (+2.7).  Only Fairfield held their opponents to fewer points in the MAAC (62.8 points allowed for the Greyhounds).

Prediction: Etherly and Walker have to stay out of foul trouble for the Greyhounds to keep this one close.  Unfortunately, the Etherly and Walker will likely be matched up with Thomas and Sullinger.  Look for the Buckeyes front court duo to attack the Greyhounds in the paint area with easy buckets.  If the Greyhounds decide to play zone, or even double Sullinger, they will leave capable shooters in Buford and Craft open on the perimeter.  Buckeyes roll in this one.

Buckeyes win, take Buckeyes minus 17.5

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