Measuring Success: 1st Quarter Rankings of NFL Teams’ Rookie Class

Oct 06, 2012 5 Comments
Robert Griffin III Washington Redskins

Robert Griffin III has been one of the most impactful players in the 2012 Rookie Class. Photo By: Keith Allison

The NFL Draft is a year around business, with teams scouting for the next great impact/role player and as well as “experts” prognosticating, projecting, and pronouncing which player that will be.  Yet for all the talk and who a teams actually picks, I’ve never seen or read any statistical analysis of the impact rookies are making on their team per the value of the draft pick used to selected them. Specifically, which teams have succeeded in drafting the most impactful rookies at the least amount of cost to the franchise.

Thus the following is a working statistical analysis that attempts to identify which NFL franchise’s have had the most impactful rookie class when rookies’ statistics are weighted against the value of obtaining them via the draft and free agency.

The Process:
Using player statistics provided by the NFL, the study defines the value of a rookie player by giving numerical values to key stats for each position such as attempts, yards, touchdowns, tackles, fumbles, etc.  The numbers are tabulated for each player and in turn for each team, providing an overall “Rookies Point Value” for each franchise through the first four weeks of the season.

The NFL Draft Value Chart, which provides a numerical value to each draft position, is then used to reach each team’s “Draft Chart Value” by combining all a team’s picks values.

A team’s Rookies Point Value is then divided by a team’s Draft Chart Value to reach the final number which measures and ranks the impact of a team’s rookies so far in the 2012 season.

In layman’s terms: A rookie’s statistical information is given a value and that value is weighted against the value of the draft pick which an NFL team used to select that player to reach a conclusion about which franchise has done the best job at selecting rookies that are making an immediate impact in the league.

A Few Notes:

  • Offensive Linemen: Because I have been unable to locate or obtain reasonable statistics on rookie offensive linemen these players are not include in the study, with their values removed from each team’s Draft Chart Value.
  • Free Agents: These players have been included in the study with each player counting as a zero when calculating a team’s Draft Chart Value.  The logic behind this is a team did not expend a definable value in relation to the draft to obtain a free agent player.
  • Impact Positions: Teams that have drafted impact position players, like quarterbacks, are more likely to have a higher team Rookies Point Value number than others, simply because these players touch the ball with greater frequency and score more points. In most cases a player’s contributions to a team’s Rookies Point Value is offset by their higher numerical contribution to the team’s Draft Chart Value. Consequently teams with high performing late round draft picks and/or free agents have a greater chance of achieving a higher ranking.  Case in point are the 8th ranked Baltimore Ravens who combined both of these aspects to achieve their position.
  • QB Rushing Statistics: With the growth of “rushing quarterbacks” in the league, each rookie quarterback’s rushing statistics have been included in the calculation of their Rookie Point Value.
  • Rookies Not Starting, Playing, or On Roster:  If a drafted rookie has zero statistical information as provided by the NFL or if a rookie has be released, their Draft Chart Value number is still counted against a team’s overall Rookies Point Value.  This is the sole reason that the San Francisco 49ers are ranked 32nd in the NFL, as none of their rookies have any statistical information to date.  Remember this study is measuring a team’s rookies impact on the season.
  • Byes: Remember that Indianapolis and Pittsburgh’s ranking are potentially lower than other teams because of their bye coming in Week 4.
  • Wins and Losses: Because the NFL is a team sport with countless variables that determine the outcome of a game, including players from previous drafts, wins and losses have not been factored this study.

Going forward after each quarter of the 2012 season, I’ll post an updated version of the rankings.  Because of the time it took to set up the parameters of the study I was not able to provide as much statistical breakdown in this post as I had initially intended.  However, in the 2nd quarter report, I do plan to include brief breakdowns of leading players at key positions, the MVP’s of each team, and a broader discussion of the interesting facts discovered while compiling the information.

The 2012 Season 1st Quarter Team Rankings are as follows:

Atlanta Falcons Logo Small 1

#1 Atlanta Falcons (4 Eligible Draft Picks)
Rookies Point Value: 35.1/Draft Chart Value: 72.75
Overall: 0.4825

Miami Dolphins Logo Small#2 Miami Dolphins (8 Eligible Draft Picks)
Rookies Point Value: 647.54/Draft Chart Value: 2000.7
Overall: .3237

Washington Redskins Logo Small#3 Washington Redskins (6 Eligible Draft Picks)
Rookies Point Value: 897.1/Draft Chart Value: 2784
Overall: 3222

Seattle Seahawks Logo Small#4 Seattle Seahawks (9 Eligible Draft Picks)
Rookies’ Points Value: 599.3/Draft Chart Value: 1919.6
Overall: 0.3122

Cleveland Browns Logo Small#5 Cleveland Browns (9 Eligible Draft Picks)
Rookies Point Value: 828.63/Draft Chart Value: 3321
Overall: 0.2502

Indianapolis Colts Logo Small#6 Indianapolis Colts (9 Eligible Draft Picks)
Rookies Point Value: 779.79/Draft Chart Value: 4041.75
Overall: 0.1929

Pittsburgh Steelers Logo Small#7 Pittsburgh Steelers (6 Eligible Draft Picks)
Rookies Point Value: 44.93/Draft Chart Value: 269.4
Overall: 0.1668

Baltimore Ravens Logo Small 1#8 Baltimore Ravens (6 Eligible Draft Picks)
Rookies Point Value: 110.79/Draft Chart Value: 801.8
Overall: 0.1382

Oakland Raiders Logo Small#9 Oakland Raiders (5 Eligible Draft Picks)
Rookies Point Value: 14/Draft Chart Value: 116.6
Overall: 0.1201

Tennessee Titans Logo Small#10 Tennessee Titans (7 Eligible Draft Picks)
Rookies Point Value: 151.8/Draft Chart Value: 1531.9
Overall: 0.0991

New Orleans Saints Logo Small#11 New Orleans Saints (3 Eligible Draft Picks)
Rookies Point Value: 21/Draft Chart Value: 222.6
Overall: 0.0943

New England Patriots Logo Small#12 New England Patriots (7 Eligible Draft Picks)
Rookies Point Value: 161.3/Draft Chart Value: 2098.5
Overall: 0.0767

Tampa Bay Bucaneers Logo Small#13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7 Eligible Draft Picks)
Rookies Point Value: 180.53/Draft Chart Value: 2488.5
Overall: 0.0726

St. Louis Rams Logo Small#14 St. Louis Rams (9 Eligible Draft Picks)
Rookies Point Value: 209.33/Draft Chart Value: 3004.4
Overall: 0.0697

Minnesota Vikings Logo Small#15 Minnesota Vikings (9 Eligible Draft Picks)
Rookies Point Value: 75.5/Draft Chart Value: 1113.1
Overall: 0.0678

Philadelphia Eagles Logo Small#16 Philadelphia Eagles (7 Eligible Draft Picks)
Rookies Point Value: 146.1/Draft Chart Value: 2166.3
Overall: 0.0674

Chicago Bears Logo Small#17 Chicago Bears (6 Eligible Draft Picks)
Rookies Point Value: 106.4/Draft Chart Value: 1615.2
Overall: 0.0659

Carolina Panthers Logo Small#18 Carolina Panthers (6 Eligible Draft Picks)
Rookies Point Value: 97.05/Draft Chart Value: 1574.1
Overall: 0.0617

Buffalo Bills Logo Small#19 Buffalo Bills (6 Eligible Draft Picks)
Rookies Point Value: 105.2/Draft Chart Value: 1710.25
Overall: 0.0615

New York Giants Logo Small#20 New York Giants (6 Eligible Draft Picks)
Rookies Point Value: 47.59/Draft Chart Value: 1036.5
Overall: 0.0459

Jacksonville Jaguars Logo Small#21 Jacksonville Jaguars (6 Eligible Draft Picks)
Rookies Point Value: 114.7/Draft Chart Value: 2519.6
Overall: 0.0455

New York Jets Logo Small#22 New York Jets (7 Eligible Draft Picks)
Rookies Point Value: 76.6/Draft Chart Value: 1706.4
Overall: 0.0449

Green Bay Packers Logo Small#23 Green Bay Packers (7 Eligible Draft Picks)
Rookies Point Value: 54.5/Draft Chart Value: 1441.8
Overall: 0.0378

Arizona Cardinals Logo Small#24 Arizona Cardinals (4 Eligible Draft Picks)
Rookies Point Value: 46.6/Draft Chart Value: 1380
Overall: 0.0338

Denver Broncos Logo Small#25 Denver Broncos (7 Eligible Draft Picks)
Rookies Point Value: 44.15/Draft Chart Value: 1353.7
Overall: 0.0326

Detroit Lions Logo Small#26 Detroit Lions (7 Eligible Draft Picks)
Rookies Point Value: 20.5/Draft Chart Value: 658.5
Overall: 0.0311

Houston Texans Logo Small#27 Houston Texans (3 Eligible Draft Picks)
Rookies Point Value: 30.7/Draft Chart Value: 1180
Overall: 0.0260

Cincinnati Bengals Logo Small#28 Cincinnati Bengals (9 Eligible Draft Picks)
Rookies Point Value: 45/Draft Chart Value: 1782.6
Overall: 0.0236

Kansas City Chiefs Logo Small#29 Kansas City Chiefs (6 Eligible Draft Picks)
Rookies Point Value: 29.8/Draft Chart Value: 1389.4
Overall: 0.0215

San Diego Chargers Logo Small#30 San Diego Chargers (6 Eligible Draft Picks)
Rookies Point Value: 15.5/Draft Chart Value: 1612.5
Overall: 0.0096

Dallas Cowboys Logo Small#31 Dallas Cowboys (7 Eligible Draft Picks)
Rookies Point Value: 18.3/Draft Chart Value: 1944.9
Overall: 0.0094

San Francisco 49ers Logo Small#32 San Francisco 49ers (5 Eligible Draft Picks)
Rookies Point Value: 0/Draft Chart Value: 960.5
Overall: 0

Copyright © sports-glutton.com, 2010-2012. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from sports-glutton.com is strictly prohibited.

Football, Sports Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

5 Responses to “Measuring Success: 1st Quarter Rankings of NFL Teams’ Rookie Class”

  1. Steven Jeffries says:

    Jed, this is impressive! You’re right, this is a lot of great information which I’m sure took a good while to compile. If I’d seen this earlier in the preseason, I’d have BR’ed your work.

    Great piece for the “stats” fans among us!

  2. Name says:

    This is outstanding original research. Any big-time sports media would love to have statistics like this.

  3. Measuring Success: 2nd Quarter Rankings of NFL Teams’ Rookie Class | sportsglutton says:

    […] has done the best job at selecting rookies that are making an immediate impact in the league. (Click here for additional details about the parameters of the […]

%d bloggers like this: