#1 Indiana vs. #16 LIU Brooklyn

How they Punched Their Ticket

• Indiana (27-6, 14-4 Big 10): Finished 1^st in Big 10- At Large Bid
• LIU Brooklyn (20-13, 12-6 NEC): Won NEC Tournament- Automatic Bid

ATS (Against the Spread)

• Indiana: 14-13
• LIU Brooklyn: 3-0

Hoosiers Outlook: IU’s offensive efficiency within a conference as competitive as the Big 10 is truly impressive.  As you can see by the chart below, their efficiency ranked near the top of the country:

The Hoosiers look to attack you at all times during their offensive sets, however they might be the most dangerous during transition opportunities.  Cody Zeller does an excellent job of running the floor and getting into the paint area.  This usually translates into easy buckets.  Indiana also does an excellent job of creating three point opportunities during those same fast break run outs.  Christian Watford and Jordan Hulls are deadly at picking a spot on the floor during transition and making opposing teams pay.  Finally, the Hoosiers have Victor Oladipo who is the best all around player in the field of 68, bar none.

LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds: The Blackbirds won the NEC tournament for the third consecutive season by knocking off Mount St. Mary’s 91-70 last Wednesday.  LIU had to overcome the loss of reigning NEC player of the year Julian Boyd (torn ACL), as well as mid-season suspensions to Jamal Olasewere and C.J. Garner for their roles in an on-campus brawl.  Both players were later re-instated, which was key for head coach Jack Perri and his team. 

Olasewere and Garner combine for 35 points per game, and they both shoot over 50% from the field.  The Blackbirds rank within the Top 10 nationally in points per game (79.5-6^th), field goal percentage (48.3-10^th), and free throws made (591-3^rd).

Editors Note: We are predicting an LIU Brooklyn victory over James Madison.  It will be updated should they lose.

Prediction: Hoosiers were probably the best team all season long.  Their offensive firepower is what really separates them from the rest of the field.  Their quest to secure their first Final Four appearance since 2002 begins in Dayton, Ohio on Friday.

Line: N/A

Hoosiers win, take the Hoosiers minus the points if at/or below 22

 

 

#8 NC State  vs. #9 Temple 

How they Punched Their Ticket

• NC State (24-10, 11-7 ACC): Finished 4^th in the ACC- At Large Bid
• Temple (23-9, 11-5 A-10): Finished 3^rd in the A-10- At Large Bid

 ATS (Against the Spread)

• NC State: 17-14
• Temple: 14-16

Wolfpack Outlook: If you lined up every NCAA tournament roster and had to select a team from scratch, it’s not inconceivable that three of the Top 20 players would be from this Wolfpack team.  C.J. Leslie (PF), Lorenzo Brown (PG), and Richard Howell (C) are big time players who are all destined for the next level.  Yet, their star power didn’t translate into consistency for Mark Gottfried and his team this season. For whatever reason the team play uninspired basketball for much of the season (especially during conference play), failing to live up to the huge preseason expectations that stemmed from their near upset of Kansas at the Midwest Region last season. 

It’s worth noting that the Wolfpack posted a similar regular season/conference record last season.  Perhaps some teams are just better suited for a tournament format.

Owls Outlook: In his seventh season as head coach Frank Dunphy continues to succeed at Temple. He has now won close to 70% of his games coached (157-73), and guided the Owls to their sixth straight NCAA Tournament appearance.

Senior guard Khalif Wyatt might be one of the most dangerous players in the tournament. The 6-4 guard is a natural scorer who is always under control with his dribble.  At times, he seems like he is playing the game in slow motion and has notched double figure scoring in the Owls last 18 games.  Forwards Scootie Randall (11.8 PPG 6.1 RPG) and Anthony Lee (10.0 PPG 7.0 RPG) fuel the Owls frontcourt. 

Temple ranked in the Top 3 in the A-10 in points per game (73.4-3^rd), points per possession (1.08-T-3^rd), and assist to turnover ratio (1.3-T-1^st).

Prediction: The Pack have a couple different players they can throw at Wyatt to try and slow him.  Lorenzo Brown has the size and athleticism to matchup with him.  If they can somehow get him off his game, they should win this game going away.  Temple will not be able to contain Leslie or Howell on the block, which in return to could lead to frequent double teams.  Look for sharp shooter Scott Wood to get some open looks beyond the arc should that happen.

Line: Temple +3 ½

Wolfpack win, take the Pack minus 3 ½

 

 

#2 Miami vs. #15 Pacific

How they Punched Their Ticket

• Miami (27-6, 15-3 ACC): Won the ACC Tournament- Automatic Bid
• UOP (22-12, 13-5 Big West): Won the Big West Tournament- Automatic Bid

ATS (Against the Spread)

• Miami: 19-8-3
• UOP: 15-13-3

Hurricanes Outlook: Head coach Jim Larranaga had the Hurricanes competing amongst the nation’s elite for much of the 2012-13 season.   Their 13 game winning streak to start conference play enabled them to capture their 1^st outright ACC regular season title.  The team capped off their magical ACC run with a tournament title versus North Carolina on Sunday. 

As we mentioned earlier in the season, Miami simply doesn’t surrender second chance opportunities to their opponents. The Canes collected defensive rebounds on 72.1% of shot attempts by their opponents (Top 50 in the nation). The likes of Reggie Johnson and Kenny Kadji have done an excellent job in this area all season long.  Sophomore point guard Shane Larkin’s offensive game really progressed this season, evident by his +12.6% field goal efficiency over last season’s total.

Tigers Outlook: Head coach Bob Thomason and the Tigers are no strangers to the tournament.  During a three year stretch starting back in 2004, the Tigers appeared in three straight NCAA tournament games.  Even more impressive, they secured wins versus Providence (2004), Pittsburgh (2005), and probably should have beat Boston College back in 2006 (lost in OT). 

UOP is peaking at the right time, winners of seven straight games.  Seniors Lorenzo McCloud (11.4 PPG) and Travis Fulton (9.1 PPG) help fuel the Tigers scoring attack.  Junior forward Tony Gill was instrumental in the teams Big West tournament title, as he scored a combined 39 points in wins over Cal Poly and UC Irvine.

Prediction: The Hurricanes have been forewarned…this is a trap game.  Pacific head coach Bob Thomason has a track record of having his teams prepared for these matchups.  Throw in the fact that after 25 years roaming the Tigers sideline, this will be his last hoorah.  You can bet his players will leave everything on the floor versus Miami.  Look for this game to be close throughout, with UOP potentially having a chance to pull off the upset late.

Line: Pacific +13 ½

Hurricanes win, take the Tigers plus 13 ½

 

 

#5 UNLV  vs. #12 California  

How they Punched Their Ticket

• UNLV (25-9, 10-6 MWC): Finished 3^rd in the Mountain West- At Large Bid
• CAL (20-11, 12-6 Pac 12): Finished T-2^nd in Pac 12- At Large Bid

ATS (Against the Spread)

• UNLV: 13-18
• CAL: 13-15-1

Rebels Outlook: Great rebounding, unselfishness on offense, and the ability to turn back shots are usually a recipe for success.  The Rebels excelled in all of those areas this season.  Led by frontcourt players Anthony Bennett, Mike Moser, and Khem Birch the Rebels averaged 40.3 rebounds per game (7^th nationally) and 5.9 blocks per game (9^th nationally).  Senior point guard Anthony Marshall fueled an offense that distributed close to 17 assists per game (16.7-9^th), all which helped the team finish as one of the best offense teams in the MWC (72.3-3^rd).  Opposing teams averaged just 38.8% shooting versus the Rebels on the season (18^th nationally).

Golden Bears Outlook: Head coach Mike Montgomery’s team really strengthened their tournament resume the second half of the season.  The Golden Bears notched key conference wins versus Arizona, UCLA, Oregon, and Colorado during a key three week stretch.  Much of their success can be attributed to their talented backcourt duo of Allen Crabbe and Justin Cobbs.  The duo account for over 50% of the team scoring on the season (1059 points), and have shown the tendency to carry the team throughout the season.  Crabbe, especially, is on a short list of players in this tournament who can single-handedly will his team to victory.

Prediction: Matchups like this make you wonder if the tournament committee does their due diligence during the selection process.  UNLV beat CAL at home earlier in the season in a hard fought 1 point victory.  The selection committee’s reward to them; another road game versus the Golden Bears (San Jose is right in the Bears backyard).  UNLV was outshot by 10% versus the Bears in their previous matchup and still found a way to win.  We don’t anticipate the Bears shooting 52% versus the Rebels again.

Line: CAL +2 ½

Rebels win, take the Rebels minus 2 ½

 

 

#4  Syracuse  vs. #13 Montana

How they Punched Their Ticket

• Syracuse (26-9, 11-7 Big East): Finished 5^th in Big East- At Large Bid
• Montana (25-6, 19-1 Big Sky): Won the Big Sky Tournament- Automatic Bid

ATS (Against the Spread)

• Syracuse: 16-14
• Montana: 16-13

Orange Outlook: Syracuse struggled done the stretch of Big East play, losing four of their last 6 regular season conference games.  Still, there is no denying their talent.  Their 2-3 zone defense has been known to give teams fits.  The Orange have four players who average double figures on the season in Michael Carter Williams (12.0), C.J. Fair (14.3), Brandon Triche (13.8), and James Southerland (13.9).  A classic “Jekyll and Hyde” team, Syracuse can go stretches where they look like the best team in the country, and other stretches where they look absolutely lost (especially on offense).  A perfect example of this was their Big East Tournament title game performance vs. Louisville.

Montana Outlook: A late season injury to leading scorer Mathias Ward (F) didn’t deter the Grizzlies from capturing the Big Sky regular season and tournament championships.  Montana has been hampered with injuries all season long, as senior guard Will Cherry (13.9 PPG) missed extensive time due to a broken foot earlier in the year.  With the injury to Ward, the team now becomes depleted in the front court and must rely heavily on their backcourt duo of Cherry and Kareem Jamar (14.5 PPG).  The team’s 47.4% shooting from the field ranked 21^st nationally.

Prediction: The injury to Ward really hurts the Grizzlies, as they are limited with their frontcourt presence in this matchup.  Cherry and Jamar are going to have to find some cracks in the Cuse’ 2-3 zone (easier sound then done), as points in the paint will be at a premium for them.  Syracuse has been known to go in offensive lulls throughout the season. We don’t anticipate that to be the case in this game.

Line: Montana +14

Orange win, take the Orange minus 14

 

 

#7 Illinois  vs. #10 Colorado 

How the Punched Their Ticket

• Illinois (22-12, 8-10 Big 10): Finished 7^th in Big 10- At Large Bid
• Colorado (22-11, 10-8 Pac 12): Finished 5^th in Pac 12- At Large Bid

 ATS (Against the Spread)

• Illinois: 13-17
• Colorado: 17-13

Illini Outlook: Buyer beware!  Yes, the Fighting Illini own some very impressive wins over the course of the regular season, including victories versus Gonzaga, Butler, Ohio State, and Indiana.  They also have excellent guard play in Brandon Paul, D.J. Richardson, and Tracy Abrams, and capable front court players in Nnanna Egwu, Tyler Griffey, and Sam McLaurin. 

The problem with Illinois is that they just weren’t consistent enough on the season.  Opposing teams outshot the Illini this season (42.7% vs. 41.6%) and outrebounded them as well (34.9 vs. 33.5).  You can’t survive very long in postseason tournaments if you don’t excel in those areas.  Like I said, buyer beware.

Buffaloes Outlook: Head coach Tad Boyle’s team quietly put together yet another stellar season.  The three seasons preceding the arrival of Boyle, the Buffaloes averaged just 12 wins per season.  In his third season since taking over the program, Boyle has won at least 20 games every season, and has guided the team to their second straight NCAA tournament appearance.  Colorado is led by the trio of Andre Roberson (Forward-Jr.), Spencer Dinwiddie (Guard-So.), and Askia Booker (Guard-So.).  The junior Roberson is one of the best rebounding players in the tournament. He collected double digit rebounds on 21 separate occasions this season.  Heralded freshman forward Josh Scott delivered during his first season on campus, averaging 10.3 points per game to go along with 5.5 rebounds.

Prediction: The Illini are far too inconsistent for our liking.  Sure, Richardson and Paul can get hot and carry this team for stretches throughout a game.  But there just as likely to go cold and stunt the team’s offensive production with poor shot selection (especially Paul).  Roberson will be the best player on the floor in this game, and consequently, the most consistent.

Line Colorado +1

Buffaloes win, take Buffaloes plus 1

 

 

#6 Butler  vs. #11 Bucknell  

How the Punched Their Ticket

• Butler (26-8, 11-5 A-10): Finished 3^rd in the A-10- At Large Bid
• Bucknell (28-5, 12-2 Patriot): Won the Patriot League Tournament- Automatic Bid

ATS (Against the Spread)

• Butler: 18-14
• Bucknell: 0-3

Bulldogs Outlook: The Bulldogs move to the A-10 didn’t deter them from securing at least 25 wins for the fifth time in the last six seasons.  You could certainly make the argument that Butler’s non-conference resume was as impressive as any team in the nation.  We’re talking about wins versus Marquette, North Carolina, Indiana, and Gonzaga.  Any way you slice it, that’s big time. 

Senior Rotnei Clarke had a huge impact on the team after sitting out last year due to his transfer from the University of Arkansas.  Clarke is a fearless on the offensive side of the ball, and rarely passes up a good look at the basket.  His 106 made three pointers ranks 7^th nationally.  Sophomore Roosevelt Jones (10.2 PPG 5.7 RPG) might be one of the best all around players in the conference.  He can score, rebound, and defend at a very high level.

Bison Outlook: Bucknell senior forward Mike Muscala is a big time player, and he has been the last couple of seasons.  The model of consistency, Muscala notched double figure scoring in 32 out of his 33 games this season; including an impressive 22 double doubles. Also, we mentioned this earlier in the season, but according to the Roland Rating (measures a team’s success with a specific player ON the court vs. him OFF the court), Muscala is one of most important players in the nation to the success of his team (401-2nd).

Senior forward Joe Willman (10.3 PPG 5.9 RPG) compliments Muscala in the Bison frontcourt and sophomore Cameron Ayers is an athletic lengthy guard who usually draws the opposing teams best perimeter offensive player.

Prediction: One of the Bulldogs strengths is rebounding, as they were nearly +8 versus their opponents on the season (36.6-Butler vs. 29.0-Opp.)  The Bison were similarly dominant on the glass, out rebounding their opponents by nearly 6 per game (36.2-Bison vs. 30.3-Opp.).  The Bulldogs Andrew Smith should match up quite nicely vs. Muscala.  Bucknell needs to try and hold Butler under 40% from the field, a feat that won’t come easy.  In four of their eight losses this season, the Bulldogs shot under 40% from the field.  That fact they only shot below 40% on six separate occasions doesn’t bode well for the Bison.

Line: Bucknell +3 ½

Bulldogs win, take the Bulldogs minus 3 ½

 

 

#3 Marquette  vs. #14 Davidson  

How they Punched Their Tickets

• Marquette (23-8, 14-4 Big East): Finished T-1^st in Big East- At Large Bid
• Davidson (26-7, 17-1 Southern): Won the Southern Tournament- Automatic Bid

 ATS (Against the Spread)

• Marquette: 13-13
• Davidson: 15-15-2

Golden Eagles Outlook: Since taking over the program in 2008, head coach Buzz Williams has helped punched the Golden Eagles tournament ticket every season.  2012-13 marked the fifth straight season in which the Golden Eagles eclipsed at least 22 wins.  Williams’ implements his traditional guard heavy lineup to help fuel his pressure oriented defense and high octane offense. 

Junior guard Vander Blue improved in just about every offense statistical category this season, including points per game (+6) and field goal percentage (+3.9%).  Marquette’s 46.7% shooting was 2^nd best in the Big East and 31^st nationally.  The team has reached the field of Sweet 16 the last two seasons.

Davidson Wildcats: For the second consecutive season, the Wildcats dominated the Southern Conference with Bob McKillop’s team compiling an impressive 33-3 mark versus opponents in their conference during this period. Davidson enters the NCAA tournament red hot, winners of 17 games in a row and has the luxury of returning all five starters from last season’s NCAA tournament team, an aspect that certainly shouldn’t be overlooked. 

Senior guards Nik Cochran (9.8 PPG 3.4 APG) and JP Kuhlman (8.1 PPG 3.6 APG) are unselfish players who look to get their frontcourt tandem of De’Mon Brooks (13.8 PPG) and Jake Cohen (14.8 PPG) going early.  In close game situations, the Wildcats are tough to beat due to their ability to knock down free throws.  Their 80.1% free throw average is tops in the nation. 

Here is how the Wildcats stack up from an offensive standpoint with the Golden Eagles:

Prediction: Marquette draws a dangerous team in the 14^th seeded Wildcats.  Davidson runs a precise offense that is complimented by multiple sharp shooters on the floor.  The Golden Eagles style of play could actually be a benefit for the Wildcats, as they prefer to play at a similar pace.  Even though Marquette averages a high points per possession (1.07), they also surrender an identical number versus their opponents (1.07).    That’s a dangerous proposition versus a team that is as good offensively as Davidson.

Line: Davidson +4

Wildcats win, take the Wildcats plus 4

 

 

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