#1 Louisville vs. #16 North Carolina A&T

How they Punched Their Ticket

• Louisville (29-5, 14-4 Big East): Won Big East Tournament- Automatic Bid 
• N.C A&T (20-16,, 8-8 MEAC): Won MEAC Tournament- Automatic Bid
  

ATS (Against the Spread)

• Louisville: 20-13-1
• A&T: N/A

Cardinals Outlook: The Cardinals have strong guard play, athletic bigs, and a defense that can pressure the heck out of you.  Rick Pitino’s bunch forces nearly 19 turnovers per game (18.7), all while limiting their opponents to a meager 0.86 points per possession.  The backcourt duo of Peyton Siva and Russ Smith are no doubt critical to the team’s success, but junior center Gorgui Dieng might be the key to the team’s title run.   Dieng averaged nearly a double double on the season (10.0 PPG 9.9 RPG), and his shot blocking ability helps separate the C

Aggies Outlook: The Aggies were impressive in their 73-72 win over Liberty on Tuesday evening.  Jeremy Underwood had a near flawless shooting game, as he connected on all 6 of his shot attempts for a team high 19 points.  The team shot an impressive mark from both the field (51.9%), as well as beyond the arc (44.4%).  They will have a short turnaround before they have to face off against the #1 seeded Louisville Cardinals.

ardinals from the rest of the pack.  The team’s vaunted 2-2-1 press can wear you down over the span of an entire game.

Prediction: The Cardinals have struggled in the opening round of the tournament the last couple seasons.  Two years ago they were upset by a 13^th seeded Morehead State team.  Last season, another 13 ranked team in Davidson gave them all they could handle early, before ultimately wearing down late.  Forget any type of struggles this go around.  The Cardinals are simply firing on all cylinder right now.

Line: N/A

Cardinals win, take the Cardinals with the line if below 21

#3 Michigan State vs. #14 Valparaiso

How they Punched Their Ticket

• Michigan State (25-8, 13-5 Big 10): 3rd Place Finish in Big 10- At Large Bid
• Valparaiso (26-7, 13-3 Horizon): Won Horizon League Tournament- Automatic Bid

ATS (Against the Spread)

• Michigan State:12-16-1
• Valparaiso: 17-11-2

Spartans Outlook: The Spartans are tough to beat when junior point guard Keith Appling performs at or near his talent.  At times this season, his confidence appeared to be lacking, especially on his outside shooting.  Oddly enough, his efficiency from the field has dropped every season since his freshman campaign.  Luckily for State, they have one of the premier outside shooters in freshman Gary Harris.  The Big 10 freshman of the year has a silky smooth stroke from the outside, evident by his 47.3% shooting.  The Spartans boast a formidable front line of Adreian Payne and Derrick Nix.  Payne especially can give team fits with his inside/outside game.

Crusaders Outlook: With a 26-7 record, and 13-3 in Horizon League play, the Crusaders return to the NCAA tournament for the 8^th time in school history.  The team is led by a pair of skillful forwards who can cause matchup problems.

Seniors Ryan Broekhoff (15.9 PPG) and Kevin Van Wijk (12.7 PPG) combine to shoot 55.3% from the field.  Broekhoff fuels the Crusaders most effective offensive trait which is three point shooting.  His 82 makes from beyond the arc led the Horizon League this season.  The team’s 48.9% shooting from the field ranks 6^th nationally and their 1.09 points per possession rank within the Top 35 nationally.

Prediction: The Crusaders have an excellent chance at the upset if Broekhoff can get the likes of Adreian Payne and Derrick Nix out on the perimeter.  The Spartans secured defensive rebounds at a 72.1% clip this season ( 4^th-Big 10), yet they seem to struggle limiting second chance opportunities when Payne isn’t on the floor.

The Crusaders are going to knock down shots in this game, they are far too efficient offensively not to.  The real question becomes, can the Spartans punish the Crusaders in the paint and impose their physical will?

Line: Valparaiso +9.5

Spartans Win, take the Crusaders plus 9.5

#5 Oklahoma State vs. #12 Oregon  

How they Punched Their Ticket

• Oklahoma State (24-8, 13-5 Big 12): 3rd Place Finish in Big 12- At Large Bid
• Oregon (26-8, 12-6 Pac 12): Won the Pac 12 Tournament- Automatic Bid

ATS (Against the Spread)

• Oklahoma State: 17-14
• Oregon: 13-17-2

Cowboys Outlook: The Cowboys might have the best trio of guards in the nation with freshman sensation Marcus Smart, Markel Brown, and Le’Bryan Nash.  The trio accounted for over 60% of the team scoring this season.  Smart, especially, enabled Okie State to transition to more of an up-tempo style of play on both ends of the court.  That was evident for most of Big 12 play, as the team improved their offensive (+5.9 PPG) and defensive (-5.2) output over last season’s averages.  The Cowboys played some of their best basketball to close the season, as they won 12 of their last 15 games.

Here’s a look at the Cowboys Player Impact Chart:

Ducks Outlook: Picked by many to finish toward the bottom half of the Pac 12 standings, the Oregon Ducks were one of the surprise teams of 2012-13 college basketball season.  Depth is a strength of this team, as 6 players average nine points or more on the season.  Seniors E.J. Singler (11.7 PPG) and Carlos Emory (10.8 PPG) are versatile wing-type players who can play a variety of positions for head coach Dana Altman. 

Senior forward Arsalan Kazemi might be one of the most under-appreciated players nationally.  He is an exceptional rebounder who has great technique boxing out his opposition.  Kazemi’s 9.6 rebounds per game were 3^rd best in the Pac 12 (25^th nationally).

Prediction: Tough draw for the Cowboys, as the Ducks’ seeding is a bit of a head scratcher in my opinion.  It will be interesting to see who draws the Marcus Smart defensive assignment for the Ducks.  Damyean Dotson or the athletic Carlos Emory is probably the best bet.   Both teams prefer to play at an up tempo pace, so a high scoring affair is likely.  Having said that, the Cowboys guard play is arguably the best in the country something that will be hard for the Ducks to overcome.

Line: Oregon +3.5

Cowboys win, take the Cowboys minus 3.5

 

#4 Saint Louis vs. #13 New Mexico State

How They Punched Their Ticket

• Saint Louis (27-6, 13-3 A-10): Won the A-10 Tournament- Automatic Bid
• New Mexico State (24-10, 14-4 WAC): Won the WAC Tournament- Automatic Bid

 ATS (Against the Spread)

• Saint Louis: 20-10-1
• New Mexico State: 17-14

Billikens Outlook: The passing of former head coach Rick Majerus has seemed to have an immeasurable impact on this Billikens team this year.  Saint Louie has played inspired basketball for much of the season, and has been nearly unbeatable since late January.  Their impressive play enabled them to capture the regular season A-10 crown and a second consecutive NCAA tournament invitation. 

The team’s formula for success is simple, defend, create open shots, and dictate tempo.  Opposing  A-10 opponents only averaged 61.3 points per game vs. the Billikens, and were outscored by an average of 10.1 points per game.

Aggies Outlook: For the fourth time in the last seven years the Aggies have earned the WAC’s automatic bid.  Head coach Marvin Menzies team is surprisingly athletic at multiple positions on the floor.  That athleticism starts with guard Daniel Mullings. The 6-2 sophomore guard has a quick first step, as well as the ability to get into the paint area with relative ease. 

Red shirt freshman Sim Bhullar is a 7-5 360 pound center that gives opposing teams fits with his size alone.  His 60.2% shooting from the field (or should we say the paint area) led the WAC.  Additionally, the Aggies outrebounded their conference opponents by nearly six boards per game (37.6 vs. 31.8).

Prediction: One thing is certain, the Billikens aren’t going to beat themselves.  They are as disciplined on both ends of the court as any team in the field of 68.  They rarely turn the ball over (11.5), and make life difficult on the defensive end (58.7 points allowed).  That means the Aggies will need to value possessions and covert at an efficient rate.  Not sure either of those things happen against a Billikens team that has won 15 of their last 16 games entering this matchup.

Line: New Mexico +10.5

Billikens win, take the Aggies plus 10.5

#6 Memphis vs #11 St. Mary’s 

How they Punched Their Ticket

• Memphis (30-4, 16-0 C-USA): Won the C-USA Tournament- Automatic Bid
• Saint Mary’s (28-6, 14-2 WCC): 2nd Place Finish in WCC- At Large Bid

 ATS (Against the Spread)

• Memphis: 14-14-3
• Saint Mary’s: 16-16

Tigers Outlook: The Tigers regular season success over the last four seasons has not translated into NCAA tournament success.  Under head coach Josh Pastner, the team has now compiled a record of 104-31, yet they are still searching for their first NCAA tournament win.  Once again, their regular season resume is impressive with a 30-4 overall record, including a flawless 16-0 in conference.  Also again, there are those who feel that Memphis isn’t challenged with consistent competition throughout the season. 

We’ll let you decide with their scoring summary chart below:

Gaels Outlook: The Gaels attack is fueled by guards Matt Dellavedova and Stephen Holt. The duo accounted for 35% of the Gaels offense this season. Dellavedova is polished offensive player from Australia. He is fundamentally sound, and can finish in the lane with either hand. His quick release on his jump shot is a real asset for the Gaels on their high ball screens. His 15.9 points per game during conference play was 6th best in the WCC. Beau Levesque and Brad Waldow fuel the Gaels frontcourt.  Both players average over 10 points per game, and pull down 10.5 rebounds per game between them.  The Gaels 47.4% shooting on the season ranked in the Top 25 nationally.

Line: Tigers – 1 1/2

Prediction: After watching the Gaels march through Middle Tenn. State, I must say that I am convinced they will do the same to Memphis.  The West Coast Conference competition trumps the play in Conference USA, and that will show during the Gaels matchup vs. the Tigers.  Not sure how you slow down Dellavedova at this point.

Gaels win, take the Gaels plus 1 1/2

#8 Colorado State vs. #9 Missouri

How they Punched Their Ticket

• Colorado State (25-8, 11-5 MWC): 2nd Place Finish in Mountain West- At Large Bid
• Missouri (23-10, 11-7 SEC): 6th Place Finish in SEC- At Large Bid

ATS (Against the Spread)

• Colorado State: 14-14-1
• Missouri: 13-15-1

Rams Outlook: For the sixth consecutive season, the Rams increased their win total over the previous season’s total.  Their 25 wins during the regular season (11-5 in league) also ensured that they would be making consecutive NCAA tournament appearances for just the second time in school history.

Minnesota transfer Colton Iverson (C-Sr.) really flourished under new head coach Larry Eustachy this season.  The 6-10 big man led the Rams in scoring (14.4) and rebounding (9.6), and posted 13 double doubles during the regular season.  Senior guards Dorian Green and Wes Eikmeier are capable scorers and experienced players.  Green has actually started every game for the Rams since his freshman campaign.  Senior forward Greg Smith is extremely athletic and plays well above his size (6-6).

Tigers Outlook: After losing five seniors from last season’s 30 win team, the Tigers were still able to notch 22 regular season wins under head coach Frank Haith.  The Tigers continue to implement the same pressing/up-tempo principles that were instilled by former head coach Mike Anderson.  Basically, Mizzou wants to turn any matchup into a track meet, which in return means they will dictate tempo.

Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.  Their 77.2 points per game ranks in the Top 15 nationally, and six players average double figure scoring (Pressey, Ross, Oriakhi, Bell, Brown, Bowers).

Prediction: Look for the Rams to slow down tempo in this one.  Iverson could be the key to this matchup.  I would anticipate Oriakhi drawing the defensive assignment on him.  I am not convinced he will be able to stay out of foul trouble, which in return will make Mizzou highly susceptible to points scored in the paint (Bowers can’t guard Iverson).  Look for the Rams offense to frustrate the Tigers all day in this one.

Line: Missouri minus 2

Rams win, take the Rams +2

#7 Creighton vs. #10 Cincinnati

How they Punched Their Ticket

• Creighton (27-7, 13-5 MVC): Won the Missouri Valley Tournament- Automatic Bid
• Cincinnati (22-11, 9-9 Big East): Finished 9th in Big East- At Large Bid

ATS (Against the Spread)

• Creighton: 18-14
• Cincinnati: 11-18

Bluejays Outlook: This Bluejays team is unique for a couple of reasons.  Just like last season, Creighton’s starting five of Austin Chatman (PG), Jaheens Manigat (SG), Grant Gibbs (SF), Doug McDermott (PF), and Greg Echenique (C) started every game for head coach Greg McDermott (Chatman moved into the starting PG role with the departure of Antoine Young).  That is definitely a rarity throughout the wear and tear of a five month season.

Also, the Bluejays are another one of those rare tournament teams (Kansas, Florida, Gonzaga) who outshot their opponents by nearly 10% from the field on the season (50.8%-Creighton vs. 40.7%-Opponents).

Bearcats Outlook: Cincy is led by three upperclassmen guards in Cashmere Wright, JaQuon Parker, and Sean Kilpatrick.  The trio accounted for over 60% of the team scoring on the season.  Another defense oriented team, the Bearcats can be offensively challenged at times.  Their 37.2% shooting during conference play ranked dead last, and their points per possession (0.97) was 13^th amongst Big East teams (only St. John’s & South Florida were worse).

Bottom line, the Bearcats aren’t going to win any visual beauty contests when they match up against you.   What they are going to do is play physical and try and dictate tempo.

Prediction: The Bearcats are not a good offensive team.  The Bluejays are not a good defensive team.  Something has to give.  Three point shooting might be the determining factor in this one, and Creighton has the advantage in that category.  They knock down 42.1% of their three points shots on the season (tops nationally), vs. 31.7% for Cincy.

I would anticipate physical play by the Bearcats in an effort to try and slow down Doug McDermott.  However, he is so effective at multiple spots on the floor (including moving without the ball), I doubt it will phase him.

Line: Cincinnati +2

Bluejays win, take the Bluejays minus 2

#2 Duke vs. #15 Albany

How they Punched Their Ticket

• Duke (27-5, 14-4 ACC): Finished 2nd in ACC- At Large Bid
• Albany (24-10, 9-7 Am East): Won America East Tournament- Automatic Bid

ATS (Against the Spread)

• Duke: 17-14
• Albany: 3-3

Blue Devils Outlook: The Blue Devils boast a 13-3 record vs. the RPI Top 50, the #1 SOS, and the #1 overall RPI in the country.  Most of the team’s success is fueled by their senior frontcourt of Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly.

Plumlee excels at both ends of the court, as he is an athletic big man who can affect the game in multiple facets.  Always an effective rebounder, Plumlee enjoyed his finest scoring season to date at Duke increasing his scoring average by a full six points (17.1-SR vs. 11.1-JR).  Plumlee has also drastically improved his free throw shooting this season (67.9% is +15% over last season), an improved trait that has allowed Coach K to keep him on the floor in late game situations.   Duke led the ACC in scoring margin (+10.1), points per possession (1.14), FG% (47.6), and 3FG% (41.6) this season.

It’s hard to ignore the Blue Devils impressive offensive efficiency (displayed below):

Great Danes Outlook: The Great Danes overcame an early 10-0 deficit versus Vermont in the America East Conference championship game to claim their 3^rd NCAA tournament appearance in program history.  Senior point guard Mike Black (14.9 PPG) spearheads a roster in which 10 players average at least 10 minutes per game.  Black ranked within the Top 10 in the conference in minutes per game (32.2-6^th), field goals made (157-6^th), 3PT FG (54-6^th), free throws made (140-1^st), and points scored (508-1^st).

Albany can struggle to scores points at time, but offense isn’t their strength.  Their 60.9 points allowed ranked within the Top 40 in nation.

Prediction: The return of Ryan Kelly really makes the Blue Devils a legitimate title contender. Duke loyalists are quick to remind everyone that the team’s postseason aspirations last season were sealed once the 6-11 power forward broke his foot the week before the ACC tournament.  Reoccurring foot problems hampered Kelly again this season (missed 13 games), however he appears healthy as tournament play starts up.  The Blue Devils backcourt of Quinn Cook and Seth Curry has really excelled since Kelly’s return to the lineup. The Great Danes will look to slow down tempo in this one, but will have little success.

Line: Albany +19

Blue Devils Win, take the Blue Devils minus 19

 

 

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