#1 Gonzaga vs. #16 Southern University

How they Punched Their Ticket

• Gonzaga (31-2, 16-0 WCC): Won the WCC Tournament- Automatic Bid
• Southern (23-9, 15-3 SWAC): Won the SWAC Tournament- Automatic Bid

ATS (Against the Spread)

• Gonzaga: 17-13-1
• Southern: 4-1

Bulldogs Outlook: Huge expectations follow this Gonzaga team heading into the NCAA tournament.  There is no denying their body of work throughout the season, as they were 8-2 versus the RPI Top 50 and breezed through West Coast Conference play with a 16-0 mark.  During their current 14 game winning streak the Zags are outshooting their opponents by nearly a 15% average (49.3%-Zags vs. 34.5%-Opp).

Kelly Olynyk and front court mate Elias Harris account for nearly 40% of the teams total scoring (1002 Points-39%) and rebounding (451 Rebounds-39%) on the season.  The Zags sophomore backcourt of Kevin Pagnos and Gary Bell excel in different areas.  Pangos has developed into a true weapon within the Zags offense and is one of the best shooters in the nation (42.2 3FG%).  As for Bell, he might be one of the most under-appreciated players in the nation. His defensive prowess, especially his ability to stay in front of perimeter players, has given the Bulldogs a trait that I’m not sure they’ve had in years past.

Jaguars Outlook: The Jaguars outscored their opponents by an average margin of 10.6 points on the season (67.7 vs. 57.1), the majority of which can be attributed to a stingy defense.  Opponents shot just 36.5% versus Southern this season, 2^nd lowest in the nation.  Furthermore, their 28.4 3FG% was 3^rd lowest in the nation.

Offensively, the Jaguars are led by a couple high scoring guards.  Derick Beltran and Malcolm Miller combined to average 31.7 points per game, and pull down 10.5 rebounds.  Head coach Roman Banks should be commended for the work he has done with this program.  They are two years removed from a 4-26 record.

Line: Zags -22 ½

Prediction: Don’t pay any attention to the national critics who say Gonzaga is the weakest of the number one seeds.  The fact of the matter is, this team is ready to make a deep tournament run.  They might not have ideal size in their backcourt, but few teams can match their consistency on offense.  The Jaguars will be a stepping stone to the Zags march to the Final Four.

Zags wins, take the Zags -22 ½

 

 

#8 Pittsburgh vs. #9 Wichita State

How the Punched Their Ticket

• Pittsburgh (24-8, 12-6 Big East): Finished 4^th in Big East-At Large Bid
• Wichita State (26-8, 12-6 MVC): Finished 2^nd in Missouri Valley-At Large Bid

ATS (Against the Spread)

• Pittsburgh: 13-13
• Wichita State: 17-14

Panthers Outlook: After an uncharacteristic campaign last season, the Panthers rebounded to finish near the top of the Big East standings.  Few head coaches have had the success that Jamie Dixon has enjoyed while with Pitt.  In nine seasons, he has won over 75% of his games and captured six Big East titles.  His teams have historically performed well during tourney time, notching five Sweet 16 appearances and one Elite 8 appearance.  As with any Dixon coached team, aggressive defense is always the underlying theme.  The Panthers led the Big East conference in defensive FG% with a paltry 39.0% (28^th nationally).

Pitt has multiple contributors in all of their major statistical categories (evident by their Player Impact Chart below):

Shockers Outlook: The Shockers started non-conference play with meaningful wins over VCU, Depaul, Iowa, and Southern Mississippi. WSU shut down opposing offenses for much of league play and the team held 9 conference opponents to under 40.5% from the field.

Junior forward Cleanthony Early (love that name) has been ultra productive during his stint on the court for head coach Gregg Marshall. Although he is averaging just 25.2 minutes per game, Early has shown the propensity to take over games offensively this season. During the team’s 82-76 victory over Southern Illinois back on January 9^th, Early dropped 39 points on 13 of 19 shooting from the floor.

The Shockers led the Missouri Valley conference in scoring margin (7.8) and rebounds per game (36.4), and blocks per game (4.0).

Line: Pitt -4 ½

Prediction: The Shockers struggled in their tournament matchup versus VCU last season, shooting just 38.7% from the field.  Pittsburgh has the ability to give them similar fits this season.  Still, we don’t anticipate the same slow start that Wichita State put forth last season.  They missed 24 first half shots, including eight shots from beyond the arc.  Both these teams are good defensively, the Shockers are just better on the offensive end.  Last team with the ball could take this one.

Shockers win, take the Shockers plus 4 ½

 

 

#4 Kansas State vs. #13 La Salle

How the Punched Their Ticket

• Kansas State (27-7, 14-4 Big 12): Finished T-1^st in Big 12- At Large Bid
• La Salle (21-9, 11-5 A-10): Finished T-3^rd in Atlantic 10- At Large Bid

ATS (Against the Spread)

• Kansas State: 16-14-1
• La Salle: 12-13-1

Wildcats Outlook: Head coach Bruce Weber delivered big time in his 1^st year in Manhattan.  The Wildcats notched 25 regular season victories and more importantly captured a share of the regular season Big 12 title (their first since 1977).  During conference play, the team limited their opponents to just 63.7 points per game (2^nd fewest).

Weber’s defensive principles were a smooth transition for the majority of the current players on the Wildcats roster, as former head coach Frank Martin preached a similar physical style of play.  Point guard Angel Rodriguez’s decision making improved drastically during his sophomore campaign.  His 2.3 assist to turnover ratio was 3^rd best in the conference (compared to 23^rd last year), a characteristic that no doubt led to much of the Wildcats success this season.

Explorers Outlook: The Explorers are dancing for the first time since the days of Lionel Simmons, Randy Woods, and Doug Overton (1992 was the year).  La Salle’s resurgence has been fueled by the excellent guard play out of Tyreek Duren, Ramon Galloway, and Tyrone Garland. The trio is accounting for over 60% of the team’s scoring this season. The senior Galloway has especially excelled in 2013, scoring double figures in 27 of 30 games played.

The Explorers currently rank in the Top 5 in the A-10 in points allowed (66.3-5^th), free throw % (75.8%-2^nd), steals per game (8.3-2^nd), and blocks per game (4.2-3rd).  The team has six wins versus the RPI Top 50 on the season.  That includes wins versus fellow tournament teams Villanova, Iona, VCU, and Butler.

Editors Note: We are predicting a La Salle win versus Boise State.  This will be updated should they lose.

Line: N/A

Prediction: During their seven losses on the season, opposing teams shot an average of 49.5% versus the Wildcats.  Teams with talented guard play like Michigan, Gonzaga, Oklahoma State, and Kansas all seemed to have success spreading the floor versus K-State.  The Explorers also have stellar guard play, and could look to implement a similar strategy.  The key for the Wildcats could be the play of Rodriguez.  If he plays within the confines of Weber’s offensive system (like he has does most of the season), K-State should advance.

Wildcats win, forget the line when it is released

 

 

#6 Arizona vs. #11 Belmont

How they Punched Their Ticket

• Arizona (25-7, 12-6 Pac 12): Finished T-2^nd in Pac 12- At Large Bid
• Belmont (26-6, 14-2 OVC): Won the Ohio Valley Tournament- Automatic Bid

ATS (Against the Spread)

• Arizona: 14-16
• Belmont:14-15

Wildcats Outlook: The Wildcats looked like two completely different teams during the season.  During their 14-0 start, they played very good defensive basketball holding their opponents to average of 60.7 points per game, all while being limited to around 39% shooting from the field.  However, in their final sixteen games of the season (6 of which resulted in losses), the Wildcats allowed their opponents to score closer to 65 points per game, while shooting around 44% from the field.

Having said that, the Wildcats are still an impressive offensive team.  Former Xavier transfer Mark Lyons is a consistent scorer, although not a proto-typical point guard.  Nick Johnson and Solomon Hill both log over 30 minutes per game and average double figure scoring.

Belmont Bruins: The Bruins inaugural season in the Ohio Valley Conference was a successful one, as they captured the regular season and conference tournament titles.  Over the last three seasons, Belmont has won a total of 83 games and they’ve secured NCAA tournament bids 6 out of the last 6 seasons.

The Bruins boast one of the most prolific offenses in the nation. Their 77.2 points per game ranks within the Top 15 nationally.  During league play, they outshot their opponents from the field by an impressive 9.8% (52.2%-Belmont vs. 42.4%-Opponents). The Bruins backcourt of Ian Clark (18.1 PPG) and Kerron Johnson (13.7 PPG) have started every game except one the last two seasons (Clark missed one game this year).

Line: Wildcats -4

Prediction: The Wildcats defensive lapses toward the second of the season worry us.  The Bruins are so efficient offensively that the Wildcats can’t afford to miss their defensive assignments.  The backcourt matchup of the Bruins Ian Clark and Kerron Johnson versus the Wildcats Mark Lyons and Nick Johnson could be the determining factor in this one.  We think the Bruins will have the upper hand.

Bruins win, take the Bruins plus 4

 

 

#5 Wisconsin  vs. #12 Ole Miss

How they Punched Their Ticket

• Wisconsin (23-11, 12-6 Big 10): Finished 4^th in Big 10- At Large Bid
• Ole Miss (26-8, 12-6 SEC): Won the SEC Tournament- Automatic Bid

ATS (Against the Spread)

• Wisconsin: 14-18
• Ole Miss: 17-11-1

Badgers Outlook: Head coach Bo Ryan and the Badgers return to the Big Dance for a remarkable 15^th straight time.  They are led by an experienced senior frontcourt of Ryan Evans, Mike Brusewitz, and Jared Berggren.  Always a defensive oriented team, Wisconsin does an exceptional job of limiting their opponents to “one shot and done” on offense.  Their 73.5 defensive rebound percentage led the Big 10 and ranked 18^th nationally.

The Badgers did led the Big 10 in points allowed (55.8), opponents points per possession (0.91), and defensive FG% (38.9%).  Junior guard Ben Brust is a sharp shooter beyond the arc.  His 75 three point field goals ranked 4^th in the Big 10.

Rebels Outlook: Ole Miss overcame a 12 point halftime deficit in the SEC Title game versus Florida in route to securing their first NCAA Tournament bid since 2002.  The team’s 77.9 points per game led the SEC, as did their field goals made (925), and field goals attempted (2,110).

The Rebels feature a balanced scoring unit, led junior guard Marshall Henderson (20.1 PPG).  The fiery guard is a high volume shooter (507 attempts on the season) that has the ability to keep the Rebels in a game, or shoot them out of one.  Senior power forward Murph Holloway is a load down low (14.6 PPG 9.6 RPG).  Few teams have had success keeping him out of the paint area, evident by his 55.7% shooting.

Line: Badgers -5

Prediction: The Holloway versus Berggren matchup is the one to watch.  The Badgers aren’t the same team with Berggren off the floor, and Holloway’s physicality could lead to early foul trouble for him.  The Badgers are such a tough team to prepare for, and even a tougher team to execute against.  Henderson will need to score above his average for the Rebels to have a chance at the upset.

Badgers win, take the Badgers minus 5

 

 

#3 New Mexico vs. #14 Harvard

How they Punched Their Ticket

• New Mexico (29-5, 13-3 MWC): Won the MWC Tournament- Automatic Bid
• Harvard (19-9, 11-3 IVY): Won Ivy League Season Title- Automatic Bid

ATS (Against the Spread)

• New Mexico: 18-13-2
• Harvard: 13-11

Lobos Outlook: During their 28 win season last year, the Lobos held their opponents to 59.3 points per game and 38.4% from the field.  This year they notched 27 regular season wins and limited their opponents 60.9 points per game and 39.2% from the field.  Tony Snell and Kendall Williams combine to give New Mexico one of the more formidable backcourts in the nation.  Williams is a lightning quick point guard who enjoyed his finest assist to turnover ratio this season (2.3).  Tony Snell is a versatile scorer who can play multiple positions on the floor due to his length (6-7 with a long wingspan).

Additionally, head coach Steve Alford had to be ecstatic with the progression of 7-0 sophomore Alex Kirk.  Kirk increased his scoring by nearly 8 points (12.0-2012-13 vs. 4.7-2010-11) over his freshman campaign and he also led the team in rebounding at 8.1.

Crimson Outlook: The Ivy League is currently the only conference that awards its automatic bid to the regular season champion.  For the third consecutive season, that distinction belongs to the Harvard Crimson.  Head coach Tommy Amaker faced probably his biggest season of adversity following a preseason cheating scandal that forced leading scorer Kyle Casey and co-captian Brandyn Curry to withdraw from the university.

The absence of Casey and Curry called for other players to step up, and step up they did.  Sophomore Wesley Saunders had an incredible season that saw him increase his scoring by a full 13 points per game (16.5 vs. 3.3), as well as shoot an impressive 53.8% from the field.  Freshman point guard Siyani Chambers played well beyond his years for the Crimson, scoring 13.1 points per game and dishing out 5.7 assists.

Line: Lobos -12

Prediction: The Crimson are going to struggle in this game, as they simply can’t matchup with Snell and Williams on the perimeter.  Furthermore, the Lobos have the best defensive team in this region.  Unless Wesley Saunders drops around 30-35 points, this should be a lopsided affair.

Lobos win, take the Lobos minus 12

 

 

#7 Notre Dame vs. #10 Iowa State

How they Punched Their Tickets

• Notre Dame (25-9, 11-7 Big East): Finished 5^th in Big East- At Large Bid
• Iowa State (22-11, 11-7 Big 12): Finished 4^th in Big 12- At Large Bid

ATS (Against the Spread)

• Notre Dame: 16-14
• Iowa State: 15-13

Fighting Irish Outlook: Head coach Mike Brey has one of the most unselfish teams in the nation.  Notre Dame’s 17.5 assists per game led the Big East conference, and was second nationally.  Their 1.57 assist to turnover ratio led the country.  Much of the team’s success stems from the stellar play of their back court duo Eric Atkins(Jr.-PG) and Jerian Grant (So.-SG).  Atkins and Grant accounted for over 66% of their team’s assists on the season. Senior forward Jack Cooley is a presence down on the blocks.  He posted 19 double doubles on the season, and is capable of huge statistical outputs.

Worth noting: The Fighting Irish have lost their opening round game twice out of the last three years .

Cyclones Outlook: The Cyclones are a senior oriented team full of transfers and former junior-college players.  They are also one of the most explosive offensive teams in the nation.  Head coach Fred Hoiberg like his team to play fast, and that has translated into nearly 80 points per game for ISU (79.6-5^th nationally).

Korie Lucious (Michigan State transfer) and Will Clyburn (Utah transfer) fuel the Cyclones backcourt.  Clyburn (15.0 PPG 7.1 RPG) is extremely versatile due to his athletic ability and lengthy frame (6-7), he can matchup at two-guard or the small forward position.  Senior guard Chris Babb (Penn State transfer) seemed to regain his shooting stroke this season after struggling late last season with it.  Senior Tyrus McGee might be the best 6^th man in this tournament.

Line: Fighting Irish -1

Prediction: Too many weapons for the Irish to contend with in this matchup.  McGee might be the most troublesome for head coach Mike Brey, as he is instant offense when he enters the game.  Look for Melvin Ejim to contain Jack Cooley, putting the onus squarely on the shoulders of Atkins and Grant to make plays consistently on the offensive end.  They won’t be able to match the Cyclones offensive firepower.

Cyclones win, take the Cyclones plus 1

 

 

#2 Ohio State vs. #15 Iona

How they Punched Their Tickets

• Ohio State (26-7, 13-5 Big 10): Won the Big 10 Tournament- Automatic Bid
• Iona (20-13, 11-7 MAAC): Won the MAAC Tournament- Automatic Bid

ATS (Against the Spread)

• Ohio State: 17-10
• Iona: 15-16

Buckeyes Outlook: Juniors Aaron Craft (PG) and DeShaun Thomas (PF) are the heart and soul of this Buckeyes team.  They have helped OSU reel off eight straight wins (6 of which have come against teams in this tournament), including a win in the Big Ten title game vs. Wisconsin.

During their current winning streak, teams are shooting just 38.8% versus the Buckeyes and turning over the ball an average of 14 times per game.  Much of those turnovers can be attributed to the on-ball pressure defense that Craft implements on the opposing teams point guard.  As a team, OSU has accumulated 10 steals in a game in 3 out of their last 8 games.  DeShaun Thomas is a matchup nightmare due to his ability to play with his back to the basket, as well as turn and face his defender.

Iona Gaels: The Gaels will be making their 8^th NCAA tournament appearance, thanks to a 60-57 victory over Manhattan in the MAAC championship game.  Iona had a rollercoaster season that started all the way back with the NCAA Tournament loss last season to BYU.

If you remember, the Gaels played in the First Four matchup versus BYU.  They built a 25 point lead in that game, only to see that lead Cougars storm back and pull off a miraculous come from behind victory.  Their tough luck seemed to carried into this season, as six of their conference losses were by a combined 11 points.

Still, Iona has punched their ticket again and their offensive firepower is tough to ignore.  Their 80.7 points per game is 3^rd nationally.

Line: Buckeyes -14 ½

Prediction: The Gaels are tournament tested, but the Buckeyes have their eye on the top prize.  A grueling Big 10 season should pay dividends for OSU in this matchup, as they played in tournament like games every week in that conference.  Keep an eye on the continued development of Buckeyes sophomore Sam Thompson.  He could be the X-Factor for OSU in this tournament.

Buckeyes win, take the Gaels plus 14 ½

 

 

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