#1 Kansas vs. #16 Western Kentucky

How they Punched Their Ticket

• Kansas (29-5, 14-4 Big 12): Won Big 12 Tournament- Automatic Bid
• Western Kentucky (20-15, 10-10 Sun Belt): Won Sun Belt Tournament- Automatic Bid

ATS (Against the Spread)

• Kansas: 18-15
• Western Kentucky: 17-17

Jayhawks Outlook: A lot of people forget that freshman guard Ben McLemore was originally expected  to join the team last season, but an ineligibility ruling left him unable to compete.  McLemore spent last season practicing with the team and absorbing as much he could to ready himself for the following year.  And prepare himself he did, as the 6-5 guard was not only one of the best freshman in the country, but also on the short list of national player of the year candidates.  McLemore was a steady scoring option all season long for the Jayhawksh.  His perimeter game, along with Jeff Withey’s inside presence are going to make the Jayhawks a tough out.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: The Sun Belt Conference automatic bid went to the Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky thanks to their win over Florida International in the tourney title game.  Their 10-10 conference record was mainly due to injuries throughout the season, but they are finally healthy at the right time.  TJ Price (15.3 PPG 4.4 RPG), George Fant (12.9 PPG 6.8 RPG), and Jamal Cook (12.0 PPG) are the primary scoring options for head coach Ray Harper.  The Hilltoppers are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country.  Their 423 offensive rebounds was tops in the Sun Belt, and ranked in the Top 35 nationally.

Line: Jayhawks -20

Prediction: Hard to envision a scenario where Western Kentucky keeps this one close.  The Jayhawks have offensive and defensive game changers in Ben McLemore and Jeff Withey.  Head coach Bill Self has proven to be one of the best tournament coaches in recent years, as he always has his team’s prepared to play.

Jayhawks win, take the Jayhawks minus 20

 

 

#8 UNC vs. #9 Villanova

How they Punched Their Ticket

• UNC (24-10, 12-6 ACC):Finished 3^rd in ACC- At Large Bid
• Villanova: 20-13, 10-8 Big East): Finished 8^th in Big East- At Large

ATS (Against the Spread)

• UNC: 17-14
• Villanova: 13-13-1

Tar Heels Outlook:  The Tar Heels finished ACC play strong, winning 11 out of their last 15 games, and building much needed team chemistry in the process.  North Carolina is usually at their best when James Michael McAdoo, Reggie Bullock, and P.J. Hairston are on the court together.  The trio accounted for over 53% of the team’s scoring and 46% of its rebounding on the season.  Freshman point guard Marcus Paige has done an admirable job running the team.  He is limited with his outside shooting, and like all young players could improve upon his decision making at times (committed 13 turnovers in his final regular season games).

UNC looks to push the ball at almost every opportunity, and more time than not, generates a lot of shots in the process.  Their 2,199 field goal attempts led the nation (as did their 977 makes).  The team’s 1.42 assist to turnover ratio ranks within the Top 10 in the nation.

Wildcats Outlook: The Wildcats are another team who just weren’t consistent during the season.  Sure they had some marquee wins on the season (ex. Louisville, Syracuse, Georgetown), but they also had some disappointing efforts as well (ex. Columbia & Seton Hall).  The main issue, especially recently, has been their inability to value possessions.  As you can see by the chart below, their turnover rate compared to assists is their strong suit:

Freshman guard Ryan Arcidiacono is premier shooter from beyond the arc, and does a good job running the team’s offense.  He should excel in an up tempo matchup with the Tar Heels.

Line: UNC -1

Prediction: The Tar Heels are playing at a very high level right now.  Look for the Wildcats to have issues matching up with Bullock and Hairston.  The James Michael McAdoo vs. Mouphtaou Yarou matchup should be fun.  McAdoo can ill-afford to get into early foul trouble.  The Wildcats seems to have a knack for playing up to their competition.  Don’t be surprised if they pull the mild upset.

Tar Heels win, take the Tar Heels minus 1

 

 

#5 VCU vs. #12 Akron

How the Punched Their Ticket

• VCU (26-8, 12-4 A-10): Finished 2^nd in A-10- At Large Bid
• Akron (26-6, 14-2 MAC): Won MAC Tournament- Automatic Bid

ATS (Against the Spread)

• VCU: 10-16-1
• Akron: 12-15

Rams Outlook: Head coach Shaka Smart and the Rams have proven to be dangerous this time of year.  As we mentioned a couple weeks back, VCU excels in specific areas that make them so effective in a tournament type atmosphere. Number one, they generate an abundance of shots. They currently rank in the Top 10 nationally in field goals attempts (1994-8th) and field goals made (908-8^th). Juvonte Reddic, Treveon Graham, Troy Daniels, and Rob Brandenburg are all high volume shot takers/shot makers. You can never have too many of those. Next, the Rams led the A-10  in offensive rebounding (447) and steals (382-1^st); both statistics have proven to be game swaying characteristics.

Zips Outlook: The Zips return the tournament for the third time in the last five seasons.  They limited MAC opponents to just 0.95 points per possession (1^st), as well as 39.9% shooting from the field (2^nd).  At one point this season, Akron had won 19 games in a row.  However, a suspension to starting point guard Alex Abreu has forced the team to go with a freshman at the position (Carmelo Betancourt). 

The play of Zeke Marshall  (13.0 PPG 7.1 RPG 3.7 BPG) and Demetrius Treadwell (11.4 PPG 7.9 RPG) will probably determine how far this team goes in the tournament.

Line: Ram -6

Prediction: The Abreu suspension looms even larger when you have to face a pressing team such as the Rams.  Akron is going to have a tough time slowing down the pace of this game.  This has a chance to be a lopsided affair.

Rams win, take the Rams minus 6

 

 

#4 Michigan vs. #13 South Dakota State

How they Punched Their Ticket

• Michigan (26-7, 12-6 Big Ten): Finished T-4^th in Big 10-At Large Bid
• South Dakota State (25-9, 13-3 Summit): Won Summit Tournament- Automatic Bid

ATS (Against the Spread)

• Michigan: 15-15-1
• South Dakota: 15-13-1

Wolverines Outlook: Michigan transformation from a conservative style offense to an up tempo oriented offense this season was truly staggering.  Led by Big 10 player of year Trey Burke, the Wolverines averaged over 10 points more per game than what their average scoring output had been during head coach John Beilein’s previous five seasons (75.4 vs. 65.3). 

Michigan offensive sets are some of the toughest to defend in the nation.  They make life even more difficult for their opponents based off the fact that they don’t turnover the ball.  The 1.55 assist to turnover ratio was second in the nation, and their 1.17 points per possession was 6^th best.

South Dakota State Jackrabbits: Senior guard Nate Wolters headlines a Jackrabbits team that will be making their second consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament.  SDSU has compiled 52 wins the last two seasons, and similar to Michigan, look to push the ball at every opportunity.  Their 47.0% shooting from the field ranks within the Top 25 in the nation, and their 73.9 points ranks within the Top 40.  Perhaps the most impressive feat of the season by the Jackrabbits was their road win versus New Mexico back on December 22^nd.  They shot 48.0% from the field versus a very good Lobos team.

Line: Wolverines -11.5

Prediction: Michigan struggled to close the season, but still remains one of the most dangerous teams in the field of 68.  John Beilein’s offensive sets are a nightmare to prepare for on short notice.  Look for him to even implement some of his patented 1-3-1 defense in this matchup (something they have used sparingly this season).  Trey Burke will get the best of the matchup between Nate Wolters.

Wolverines win, take the Wolverines minus 11.5

 

 

#6 UCLA vs. #11 Minnesota

How they Punched Their Ticket

• UCLA (25-9, 13-5 Pac-12): Finished 1^st in Pac 12-At Large Bid
• Minnesota (20-12, 8-10 Big Ten): Finished 8^th in Big 10-At Large Bid

ATS (Against the Spread)

• UCLA: 17-11
• Minnesota: 14-15

Bruins Outlook: The nation’s top ranked recruiting class paid immediate dividends for head coach Ben Howland and the UCLA program.  Freshmen Jordan Adams, Kyle Anderson, and Shabazz Muhammad help the Bruins secure the Pac 12 regular season title.  More importantly, they appear to have got a program  that had seemingly been lost the last couple of seasons back on track.  UCLA ‘s 70.8 points per game was 3^rd best in the Pac 12.  The Bruins suffered an unfortunate set back during the Pac 12 semifinals vs. Arizona, as Adams broke his foot late in the game.

Golden Gophers Outlook: I am not even going to try and break this Gophers team down, as they have proven to be one of the most unpredictable teams in the nation.  Instead, here is a shooting trend and player impact chart.  Knock yourself out!

Line: Gophers -2

Prediction: For gambling purposes, STAY AWAY FROM THIS GAME!  For bracket purposes, flip a coin.  Maybe make it the best out of 3 if you’re not fully convinced (which, by the way, you are most certainly likely to be).

UCLA wins (I think……)

 

 

#3 Florida vs. #14 Northwestern State

How they Punched Their Ticket

• Florida (26-7, 14-4 SEC): Finished 1^st in SEC- At Large Bid
• NW State (23-8, 15-3 Southland): Won Southland Tournament- Automatic Bid

ATS (Against the Spread)

• Florida: 16-14
• NW State: 3-0

Gators Outlook: There are a couple of reasons to really like this Gators team.  First and foremost, their starting five are all upperclassmen with valuable tournament experience.  Kenny Boynton, Scottie Wilbekin, Mike Rosario, Eric Murphy, and Patric Young all seem like they’ve been on the college basketball landscape for years (which is a good thing). Next, the Gators field goal differential and offensive efficiency is awfully impressive.  Billy D’s team outshot their opponents by over 11% on the season (48.5%-FLA vs. 38.3-Opp) and their 1.15 points per possession ranked in the Top 10 nationally.

Just to give you an idea of how dominant the Gators can be versus quality opponents, look no further than their non-conference wins vs. Marquette and Wisconsin (two very good teams by the way).  In those wins, the Gators outshot the Golden Eagles and Badgers by a combined 18% from the field.

Demons Outlook:  Head coach Mike McConathy and the Demons into this NCAA tournament with some pretty gaudy offensive numbers.  Their 81.0 points per game is tops in the nation, and their 13.8 offensive rebounds per game ranks within the Top 15.  On average, opposing teams turn the ball over versus the Demons 17.0 times per game.  A lot of that comes from pressure based man to man defense, that leads to steals during half court sets.  The Demons 9.8 steals per game was 5^th best in the nation and the team has four players who average double figures on the season (Davis, West, Hulbin, Hicks).

Line: Gators -19

Prediction: The Gators are on my short list of teams that can win this field of 68.  They are an experienced group that plays solid defense and efficient offense.  Head coach Billy Donovan has a proven track record this time of year and that simply can’t be emphasized enough.

Gators win, take the Demons plus 19

 

 

#7 San Diego State #10 Oklahoma

How they Punched Their Ticket

• SD St (22-10, 9-7 Mountain West): Finished 4th in MW- At Large Bid
  
• Oklahoma (20-11, 11-7 Big 12): Finished 5th in Big 12- At Large Bid
  

ATS (Against the Spread)

• SD St: 22-10
  
• Oklahoma: 20-11
  

Aztecs Outlook:  Over the last 5 years, the Aztecs program has averaged around 26 wins per game.  That consistency has help translate into 4 straight NCAA tournament appearances.  In junior guard Jamaal Franklin, SDSU possesses a rare player capable of carrying a team throughout tournament play.

Consider this, Franklin was the only player nationally to lead his team in scoring (17.1), rebounds (9.4), assists (3.2), and steals per game (1.5).  Franklin ranked within the Top 10 in the MWC in 10 different offensive categories.  Along with fellow guards Chase Tapley and Xavier Thames, the Aztecs have immense star power at the guard position.

Sooners Outlook: The Sooners return to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2009.  Oklahoma’s offensive sets begin and end with their low post presence of Romero Osby and Amath M’Baye.  The tandem combined for 25.9 points and 12.2 rebounds on the season.  Senior guard Steven Pledger shooting totals decreased over last year’s totals. He actually shot a full 4% lower from the field and beyond the arc this season.  The Sooners were the best free throw shooting team in the Big 12, knocking down 76% of their shots.

Line: SD St. -2.5

Prediction: The tournament experience of this Aztecs team is going to pay dividends at some point during this game.  Franklin is a special talent that has a chance to be recognized on the national stage if the Aztecs can pull off a couple wins in the tournament.  We think they’ll get at least one, starting on Friday.

Aztecs win, the Aztecs minus 2.5

 

 

#2 Georgetown vs. #15 Florida Gulf Coast

How they Punched Their Ticket

• GT (25-6, 14-4 Big East): Finished T-1^st in Big East- At Large Bid
• FGC (24-10, 13-5 A-Sun): Won A-Sun Tournament- Automatic Bid

ATS (Against the Spread)

• GT: 16-11
• FGC: 3-0

Hoyas Outlook: The Hoyas might be the best defensive team in the nation.  They play aggressive man to man defense, contests shots with aggression, and make it difficult for the opposing team to get into their offensive sets.  During Big East play, they held their opponents to under 40% from the field in 14 out of 18 of their games.  And then there is Otto Porter.  The sophomore forward ranked with the Top 10 in the Big East in points per game (16.4-9^th), rebounds per game (7.4-5^th), and steals per game (1.9-6^th).  You could argue that he is the most important player in the nation to his team’s success, and are unlikely to get much dispute.

Florida Gulf Coast Eagles: The Eagles are dancing for the first time in school history thanks to an 88-75 win over regular-season champion Mercer in the Atlantic Sun conference title game.  Did you know that the Eagles knocked off ACC regular season champion Miami earlier in the season?  Yeah, that actually happened.  In that game, the Eagles held the Hurricanes to just 29.1% shooting from the field, all while shooting 49.0%.  In Sherwood Brown (15.3), Bernard Thompson (14.0), and Chase Fieler (12.2), the Eagles have three scorers all of whom are capable of big scoring nights.  FGCU’s 74.3 points per game led the Atlantic Sun conference this season.  Their 1.08 points per possession was second.

Line: GT –14.5

Prediction: Too much defense and Otto Porter in this matchup for the Eagles to contend with.  Hoyas roll.

Hoyas win, take the Hoyas minus 14.5

 

 

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